An Analysis of the Military Balance in East Asia
Over at The National Interest, I just published a short piece about the military balance in East Asia.
Published by The Lawfare Institute
in Cooperation With
Over at The National Interest, I just published a short piece about the military balance in East Asia. In particular, I analyze the context, conduct, and consequences of an American blockade of China in the (thankfully) unlikely event of a Sino-American war, ultimately concluding that "[w]hile a blockade is not a priori impossible or irrelevant in any situation, it is also not a ready tool in the American arsenal and would be feasible mainly within certain boundaries."
The piece opens:
The mounting challenge presented by China’s military modernization has led the United States to review existing military strategies and to conceptualize new ones, as illustrated by the ongoing debate over AirSea Battle (ASB), a new concept of operations put forward by the Department of Defense. But in the universe of possible strategies, the idea of a naval blockade deserves greater scrutiny. By prosecuting a naval blockade, the United States would leverage China’s intense dependence on foreign trade—particularly oil—to debilitate the Chinese state. A carefully organized blockade could thus serve as a powerful instrument of American military power that contributes to overcoming the pressing challenge of China’s formidable anti-access and area denial (A2/AD) system.The piece is essentially an abbreviated version of a longer article that I published in the Journal of Strategic Studies, which goes into far greater depth for those who are interested.
Sean A. Mirski practices a combination of foreign-relations, international, and appellate law at Arnold & Porter in Washington, DC. He is also a Visiting Scholar at the Hoover Institution. He clerked for Justice Samuel A. Alito, Jr., on the United States Supreme Court, and for then-Judge Brett M. Kavanaugh on the United States Court of Appeals for the D.C. Circuit. He also served as Special Counsel to the General Counsel of the U.S. Department of Defense. He is the author of We May Dominate the World: Ambition, Anxiety, and the Rise of the American Colossus, which Kirkus selected as one of the 100 Best Non-Fiction Books of 2023.
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