Andy Worthington on Guantanamo Recidivism

British journalist Andy Worthington offers this critique of the recent DNI report on Guantanamo recidivism--and of the press coverage of the report. The DNI had reported that 16 percent (95 individual) of released detainees had reengaged with the enemy and an additional 12 percent (72 individuals) were suspected of reengaging. Worthington writes:

there are still problems with the 95 former prisoners who are supposedly confirmed as “recidivists.” A year ago, when the New America Foundation issued its own report challenging the 2010 DNI claims (PDF), accompanied by an article in Foreign Policy, the authors concluded, based on an assessment of available public documentation, that “the true rate for those who have taken up arms or are suspected of doing so is more like 6 percent, or one in 17,” with another 2.2 percent “engaged or suspected to have engaged with insurgent groups that attack or attempt to attack non-US targets”; in other words, 49 men in total, with just 36 “engaged or suspected to have engaged with insurgent groups that attack or attempt to attack the United States, US citizens, or US bases abroad.” There is a huge gulf between this analysis (of 36 men confirmed or suspected of hostile engagement with US interests) and the current claims by the DNI, in which 167 men are described as confirmed or suspected of “planning terrorist operations, conducting a terrorist or insurgent attack against Coalition or host-nation forces or civilians, conducting a suicide bombing, financing terrorist operations, recruiting others for terrorist operations, and arranging for movement of individuals involved in terrorist operations.” In addition, my own research over the last few years has provided no reason for believing the figures produced by the Director of National Intelligence. All available reports, for example, indicate that there are only a small number of problematical ex-prisoners from any countries except Afghanistan and Saudi Arabia, and, according to Afghan and Saudi officials, the number of “recidivists” from these two countries is no more than 45 in total.