Brookings Paper on China and Cybersecurity

There is perhaps no relationship as significant to the future of world politics as that between the U.S. and China. No other two nations play such dominant roles in critical global issues from peace and security to finance, trade, and the environment. How these two powers manage their relationship will likely be a key determinant of not only their own political and economic futures, but also wider global stability and prosperity. In the web of relationships that have built up between the U.S. and China, no issue has emerged of such importance, and generated such friction in so short a time span, as cybersecurity. Concerns over this domain have rapidly moved to the forefront of U.S.-China relations. While both senior policymakers and general publics are struggling to understand the cyber realm’s basic dynamics and implications, the issue of cybersecurity is looming ever larger in U.S.-China relations and is seriously affecting threat perceptions on both sides. Given what is playing out, it is especially important that Washington and Beijing begin to build the bases for greater mutual understanding, cooperation, and development of common norms in how they deal with the many issues emerging in cybersecurity. The path will be a challenging one for both U.S. and Chinese experts and officials, but if these two nations are to set both the Internet domain and global order towards a more positive future, then facing the challenges of cybersecurity is an imperative today.

The U.S.-China relationship is among the most important in the world. Both sides draw great benefit from the smooth functioning of the Internet. But the issue of cybersecurity threatens to become a major source of friction. The danger is that the technology that so connects the world will instead drive these two nations apart.

Given what is playing out, it is especially important that Washington and Beijing begin to build the bases for greater mutual understanding, cooperation, and development of common norms in how they deal with the many issues emerging in cybersecurity. Such bilateral efforts certainly should not stand in the way of various multilateral initiatives along similar lines, but focused bilateral dialogue is of great potential value.

No one should expect the issues to be resolved any time soon. Any discussions in the cyber realm must take account of the relative newness of this issue (even terminology concerning key concepts is not fully standardized), the dearth of effective coordinating mechanisms within both national polities, and the high level of mutual suspicion that already exists concerning motives and activities in this space. The potential of cyber space for espionage is so overwhelming that it is unrealistic to seek cooperative agreements to govern this part of the problem. The same is likely true of issues in which there are serious disagreements over values, such as the extent to which citizens should be free to voice views that the government considers harmful to stability. But the fact that the arena has so many daunting characteristics does not in any way reduce the importance of working to build greater understanding and cooperation in this space. Instead, it should make the ongoing failure to develop cooperative approaches and common norms all the more disturbing.

Establishing greater mutual understanding and trust will be a difficult process. It will require consistent efforts over time, common approaches to structuring the discussion, and selection of topics that hold the most promise for permitting increasing understanding of perceptions, goals, and mutually acceptable approaches and methods. The path will be a challenging one for both U.S. and Chinese experts and officials, but important things cannot be accomplished without a dedicated effort. And, it is an effort that must begin soon. In Chinese there is a proverb, “Ice does not freeze three inches thick from one day’s cold.” This adage is akin to the proverb in English that ancient “Rome was not built in a day.” These old sayings still hold true, even more so in the fast-moving world of cybersecurity.

The U.S. and China relationship is critical both to the Internet and its billions of users, as well as to overall global order beyond the world of cyberspace. If these two nations are to set both realms towards a more positive future, then facing the challenges of cybersecurity is an imperative today.