Intelligence Briefing Outlines Foreign Influence Threats to U.S. Elections

On Oct. 22, U.S. intelligence officials released a briefing from the National Intelligence Council (NIC) outlining potential foreign influence threats on and in the aftermath of the 2024 presidential election. The partially redacted document, titled “Foreign Threats to US Elections After Voting Ends in 2024,” warns that “this year China, Iran, and Russia are better prepared to exploit opportunities to exert influence in the US general election after the polls close…due to lessons drawn from the 2020 election cycle.” 

The memorandum also explains that foreign actors are likely to use tools such as information operations, cyber operations, and physical threats or violence to sow discord among Americans and advance their respective agendas. For example, the memorandum points to efforts by Russia and others to create “confusion and friction” among voters after the election, which are intended to culminate in attempts to disrupt the peaceful transfer of power through protests or physical threats—similar to that of the Jan. 6, 2021, attack on the U.S. Capitol.

The briefing lays out a series of “post-election day process vulnerabilities”—including the certification and electoral college processes—that foreign actors will seek to exploit by “creating or amplifying narratives questioning the legitimacy of the election results…to increase popular pressure on state or local officials not to certify results.” 

To address these issues, the NIC recommends: 

A multipronged approach that includes direct warnings to adversaries, public messaging to Americans that prebunks or debunks false narratives, and proactive communication between local officials and law enforcement has the best chance of thwarting foreign influence efforts after the election. US adversaries’ longstanding interest in undermining American democracy suggests it will be difficult to dissuade them from engaging during the post-election period.

You can read the briefing here or below.