Lawfare Daily: Pro-Democracy Protests in Georgia

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[Intro]

Beka Kobakhidze: During two months, there were clashes every day in the streets in Tblisi, hundreds of thousands of people were clashing every day with the police because we knew that it wasn't about NGOs or about the media. It was about establishing authoritarian rule.

Anna Hickey: It's the Lawfare Podcast. I'm Anna Hickey, associate editor for communications at Lawfare, with Dr. Beka Kobakhidze, professor and co-chair of the MA program in modern history of Georgia at Ilia State University.

Beka Kobakhidze: I mean we have video footages, a number of video footages, where the Titushky are beating people, and the police is sitting idle, looking and doing nothing to protect civilians. And, but when police arrest people, they're beating them, also.

Anna Hickey: Today, we're talking about the current protests in Georgia over the government's decision to suspend its European Union accession process, Russia's influence in the country, and the violence that the protesters have faced on the streets of Tbilisi.

[Main Podcast]

So can you explain what happened during the parliament elections this fall and who ended up winning and what issues were at hand?

Beka Kobakhidze: A ruling party in Georgia is Georgian Dream, which gradually, ever since they came into power, but especially since 2022, distanced themselves from the West and came to closer ties with Russia. And now they are fully unmasked and they have fully pro-Russian policies.

And this party, I mean, they didn't win actually, but they have stolen the elections with, through massive manipulation. So the voters were intimidated, votes were bought, basically, they just bribed people to vote for them. They threatened people. They confiscated passports and IDs, national IDs from people, and they used their IDs for the voting process.

As the results, released by the Central Election Commission, differs from the exit polls very much. According to the exit polls, the opposition, the, we had four major opposition parties. So these four major opposition parties won the elections, I mean, taken together as a coalition. But according to the Central Election Commission, the governmental party got 54 percent of the votes, which is unbelievable because this is something that they have never got.

Since spring of this year, they had numerous crackdowns. There were hundreds of thousands of people rallying against them in the streets. And after that, as they got the number of votes, which they had never had. So this is absolutely unbelievable. And it's well documented through the journalistic investigations and through the human rights and all election observers organizations.

But unfortunately there is no judicial path to challenge the elections, because, like in Venezuela, Russia or Belarus, the government has full control over the judiciary. Basically all the state institutions have been hijacked by the government. And it's not even the government because in the government, there are proxy people.

In charge of the country is the ethnic Georgian, but basically Russian oligarch, Bidzina Ivanishvili, who earned his money in Russia in the wild 1990s, and came back to Georgia. You know, you had such people both in Ukraine, and in Moldova, and elsewhere. However, they didn't succeed there, but Ivanishvili managed to capture the country and he's pulling strings.  If we can go back and say what happened in spring 2024 when he appeared before the public.

So, to zoom out a bit from Georgia and see the entire region, how it's, what it looks like. For the Russians, loss of the empire is a pretty traumatic thing. And they want to bring together the Russian lands or to bring back the imperial borderlands and these imperial borderlands start in Central Asia. In Central Asia, there are five countries of Tajikistan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, I think I didn't list. So, five countries in Central Asia, then three countries in the South Caucasuses, Georgia, Armenia, and Azerbaijan. And then you have Ukraine, Moldova, and the Baltic countries, which are now members of the European Union and NATO.

So Russia wants to bring together again, bring back the imperial borderlands. So what they did in Central Asia, four out of the five countries were fully authoritarian. These were Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, Kazakhstan, and Turkmenistan, four countries. The only country, which where there was more or less some liberties was Kyrgyzstan.

So in Kyrgyzstan, in spring, was introduced this foreign agents law. And just to explain to the listeners, what does it mean? So any organization getting foreign funding, it will be labeled and stigmatized as a foreign agent. So, for example, if you get money from USAID, you get money from UN, United Nations, various agencies, or some other international NGOs, you are labeled as a foreign agent.

And it started in Russia in, as Russians know how Russians introduced it, back in 2012 and year after year, it was gradually further restricted. And in the end, the Russians ended up in a situation when for example, these foreign agents are not only organizations, but individuals. So, individual, as an individual, if you get, for example, Fulbright Scholarship from the State Department, you are foreign agent and you cannot participate in the elections. So you cannot be a candidate in the elections. You are not allowed to teach neither at the university nor at school.

And basically all sorts of, not only civil liberties are taken away from you, but also any chance to survive economically, I mean, employment opportunities are gone. So this is a playbook of the authoritarian regimes that the income source should be one. Life opportunities must be controlled. So if you want to buy food at the end of the day for your family and for your children, it must be through the goodwill of the authoritarian regime and authoritarian regime ask for loyalty instead.

So, this is this started in Russia, and then Russia pursued exporting this law in the near neighborhood, as they call it, or in the imperial borderlands. So, it was introduced in Kyrgyzstan, and in Kyrgyzstan it's passed through. In Kyrgyzstan now there's an authoritarian regime, so Central Asia is fully gone. And now it's turn for the South Caucasus. In South Caucasus, Azerbaijan is an authoritarian regime, and only two surviving democracies were Georgia and Armenia.

In Georgia, pro-Russian government of Bidzina Ivanishvili introduced this law in the spring. And in Armenia simultaneously at the same time as there was attempt of the pro-Russian revolution led by the clergy, so Armenian Patriarchate, which is heavily influenced by Russia. And at the same time in Georgian breakaway region, which is occupied by Russia, in Abkhazia, this law was pushed and the government was forced to pass it. But both from Abkhazian population and population of the rest of the Georgia, they got pushed back and there was a heavy fight.

So, I mean, just to go farther in Ukraine and in Moldova, they're going to achieve their goals through the military means. I mean, it's, if you will look at the map, if Odessa ever falls into Russian hands, Moldova is gone. So, through the military means in Moldova and Ukraine. And then what is left, I mean it means that if this plan passes through, it means that the imperial borderlands are back.

And what's left is Baltic countries of Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia, which are members of the NATO and the European Union, and then if the fight goes there, According to the nature's Article Five, the United States and the rest of the Western countries will have to fight for defending Lithuania, Latvia, and Estonia.

Anna Hickey: This foreign agents bill, was it enacted in Georgia in the spring? Or was the pushback hard enough by the people that Georgian Dream, the ruling party, ended up not enacting it? What's the current status of that bill?

Beka Kobakhidze: During two months, there were clashes every day in the streets in Tblisi. Hundreds of thousands of people were clashing every day with the police, because we knew that it was not about NGOs or about the media. It was about establishing authoritarian rule. However, at the end of May, the government passed it, and it came into force in September.

However, pushback was so strong from the population that government was afraid to enact it. I mean, it's signed into law. It has been signed into law, but pushback was so heavy that the government was, up to now afraid to enact it. But the police has promised us that, in a week or two they're going to go after the NGOs, and crack down. NGOs, in protest of this law, NGOs actually 98% of them refuse to register themselves as foreign agents. And in case you refuse to register yourself as a foreign agent, the fines applied are so heavy that you basically, as an NGO are broke, and it's impossible to continue your actions.

And after that, there was, there were elections in October, on 26th of October. Through any credible accounts the opposition was going to win the elections because I mean, pro-Russian policies of the Georgian Dream were unmasked. And the Georgian population is heavily anti-Russian because, I mean, Russia is former metropole, it was colonizing power. Georgians have very little, if any, similarity with Russians, so language is absolutely different. Ethnic group is absolutely different. Culture is different. So it's just a colonizing power, right?

And 85 percent of Georgians support Euro-Atlantic integration, joining European Union and NATO. And polls were showing that opposition was going to win. However, Central Election Commission announced that the government got 54%.

And after that, the government, the prime minister, I mean the prime minister who is a proxy figure, actually, just a pawn of Bidzina Ivanishvili, of this oligarch. So announced that we suspend European Union integration process, which is a heavy thing, which is a very heavy thing. Because you know, I don't want to compare things with Maidan because there are no massacres, fortunately, in the streets of Tbilisi, but you remember that's how the Maidan started in Ukraine. That's when Yanukovych told to his populations that he's not going to pursue further association agreement with the European Union.

So the government was doing its best to sabotage Georgia's European Union integration path. However, they were doing it very softly, you know, telling to the populations that, yeah, oh, we are for the European Union integration because they know that 85 percent of the population support it and they would have revolt, in case of the blank statement.

Anna Hickey: Just to be clear, this is before the election, they had been saying that they're pro-eventual accession or integration to the EU, but let's just like slow, let's be slow about it.

Beka Kobakhidze: They were saying that we are for the European Union because they knew that the 85 percent of the population supports the European Union membership of Georgia. But at the same time, they were doing their best to upset relations and jeopardize the relations with the European Union, and to force European Union to reject Georgia. And then they would blame European Union that because of you, I mean, we want, but it's you who is refusing.

So for example, there were talented populations that they adopted at the same time with this foreign agents law, they adopted a bill on the traditional family values, which makes life impossible for LGBTQ community. And just, they want to put propaganda inside the school textbooks. And European Union was not complicit with such policies and with such legislation. But they said that with our values, you know, with our nationalism, with our pride, we should join, we should be joining European Union. I mean, at the same time, I mean, we should crack down the liberties and we want to join the European Union.

They knew that as a consequence, the European Union would suspend the process, would not open accession negotiations with the Georgian Dream government, but then they would blame European Union on it. And that's why, I mean, they knew the example of Yanukovych, so they remember that when Yanukovych made a blank statement that he doesn't want to go farther in relations with the European Union, what happened. So that's why they employed this new tactics.

But after securing victory in the elections, it was the prime minister said that Georgia, the Georgian government suspense is going to suspend integration process with the European Union. And as a consequence, hundreds of thousands of people marched through the streets of Tbilisi. Six ambassadors of Georgia resigned, including in the United States. United States, made a statement that, the State Department made a statement that the White House is going to suspend strategic relations with Georgia. And the diplomatic relations are pretty much severed. As a consequence, the ambassador resigned.

And ambassadors from Lithuania, Italy, Czech Republic, I mean some other countries, so six ambassadors all in all resigned. 250 Georgian diplomats, acting Georgian diplomats, employees of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, signed a petition which condemned a statement of the government and they declared that they were not in consent with the governmental policies. Around over 50 civilian employees of the Ministry of Defense signed the similar petition, and then Ministry of Education, Ministry of Justice, et cetera, et cetera.

And also, the business we have in Georgia. There are two major banks, Tbilisi Bank and Bank of Georgia. Both of these banks condemned the actions of the government, and hundreds of thousands of people went into the streets on the Central Avenue in Tbilisi. And the government organized the brutal, the most brutal crackdown of the rallies.

I mean, people were just humiliated, beaten, like, handicapped people were beaten. Journalists were beaten. Cameramen were beaten. And, but this further triggered the process and even more people came out and on a daily basis, you know, people after their jobs, they go to the rally. You know, they work and at the end of the working hours as they go for a rally.

Anna Hickey: So, have the protests against Georgian Dream's suspension of accession to the EU or integration with the EU, have those protests been primarily concentrated in Tbilisi, or are you seeing them in other, like, suburban or rural areas in Georgia?

Beka Kobakhidze: It's a striking fact, absolutely striking fact that the regions are so active. I mean, let alone the bigger cities like Batumi, Kutaisi, and Rustavi, which have population, I mean, by American standards, they're very small, for sure, but by Georgian standards anything is city, about 100,000 population. So this, this cities have around 200,000 population while Tbilisi has 1.2, 1.3 million population.

People went out in such small tiny places like Khashuri or Dmanisi. And these places, I had never seen before any demonstration, in the entire history. And you know, most importantly, none of these rallies have been organized by anyone. People just go out to the streets. You know, it's so painful because people understand very well that it's not about the change of the government that you dislike the policies or something like this. No, we are on the edge of establishing, establishment of the authoritarian rule, pro-Russian authoritarian rule, which will not go away, you know.

I mean, as soon as it is established, it will not go away. So first they'll close down the NGOs, then the universities, and yeah, recently, by the way, it was yesterday, the prime minister announced that they are going to introduce the bill, which eases, very much eases dismissal or sacking public servants. So anyone who participates in the protests, they want to remove from the public service.

And yeah, you know, they has, any authoritarian regimes, they have two goals. One would be cutting all possible alternative incomes for the people. So the income should be only one and it should be dependent on the government. And the entire country should adjust to the clientelist, patronalist system. So if you don't have good patron, and if you are not good client, you will not survive, which may trigger a mass exodus of the most bright, the brightest, and the most intellectual Georgians. So basically those people who create 80 percent of Georgian GDP are in the streets right now.

And the second thing they want to achieve is they want to kill the alternatives. So if you don't alternative, you cannot elect anyone. And, you know, we must take into account that Georgia and Georgia's democracy survived since the last 30 years, through the American support.

So for example, if Georgian Army means something, this is through the US training and equipment. And all Georgian NGOs were beneficiary not only of American, but other European donor support. And that's how the freedoms strived in this country.

So, if all this is gone and if the only income is coming from the state budget and from the government, it means that there is no liberty, given that there is no courts, there is no judiciary, there is no police to protect you. And also very important, can be even most importantly, there will be a Russian domination in Georgia. So, day after day, the Russian state officials, including President Putin, by the way, praises Georgian government for its actions.

Anna Hickey: You mentioned the really brutal crackdown that protesters have been facing. Have you been seeing that crackdown in the major cities primarily, or is it everywhere there is a protest, there has been this kind of really brutal crackdown? And then, additionally, has the crackdown been through police, through like, just the Tbilisi police, or has it been army, military figures? Who has the government been deploying to counter these protesters?

Beka Kobakhidze: The crackdowns are mostly in Tbilisi because the, this is the political center and the important political sides like parliament or the government's house are in Tbilisi, very near to each other, by the way. And the biggest mass of people obviously have gathered in Tbilisi. So they don't have the resources to crack down simultaneously in several cities. But I'm really very thankful to our compatriots who rally in regions because they chain I mean, some amount of police in the regions who otherwise would be coming and beating the protesters in Tbilisi.

So who are these? These are, I mean, initially this was anti-riot police, but you know, they are heavily armored and they're not big in numbers and it is very difficult for them to crack down the rallies on a daily basis. So, the government brought in border police, something like units, like oil pipeline protection unit and criminal police and all sorts of possible police. And then these guys then act as a riot police, as if they were riot police.

So all sorts of units are in, but even this was not enough. And the ruling party members go gym after gym, to recruit the instructors from the gym, you know, people with heavy muscles and paying them a lot, or every day service.

And also some sorts of criminals, you know, I mean, drug addicts and various sorts of people. And I mean, these are so-called Titushky. I mean, listeners might not know what this term implies. So Titushky comes from the Ukrainian protests. There was a young man called Vadym Titushko, who was a civilian, like, he was a muscular-ly guy, a civilian, and he and his group were paid by the government to beat the protesters. And then people who are doing this were called, because of his family name, Titushky.

And we call the same in Georgia, Titushky. So this Titushky, unknown groups who are wearing masks, but they are not police. They don't represent state. They beat people in the streets.

Anna Hickey: Has the reaction by the police primarily just been some kind of assault or pushing people, making sure that the protests get dispersed, or have they also been detaining protesters and putting them in jail or prison?

Beka Kobakhidze: One, two things about the police. I mean, we have video footages, number of video footages, where the Titushky are beating people and the police is sitting idle, looking and doing nothing to protect civilians. And, but when police arrest people, they're beating them, also. I mean, they take away people from the CCTVs, I mean, from the areas where there is no CCTV. And we have hundreds of heavily beaten people.

But over 400, it can be over 500, people are imprisoned. And for the country like Georgia, which is very small, so Georgia would be of the size of Maryland, something like this, you know, and by population, much less than Maryland. So, for Georgia, it is a lot. It is a lot, and the prisons are full. Prisons are full of people.

Anna Hickey: You mentioned the Maidan revolution earlier, just to remind listeners, that was the protests in Ukraine in 2014, after the Ukrainian government said that they weren't going to try to integrate with the EU or go on the EU accession process.

So what do you think of the comparisons between these protests and the Maidan revolution in 2014? And how do you see the current Georgian protests interacting with the geopolitics with the Russia-Ukraine war going on, with the issues in Moldova. Do you see the kind of success or failure of the Georgian protests having a large impact on how other countries view standing up to Russia? Or do you think it's relatively siloed off?

Beka Kobakhidze: It's very much related, as I said, not only Georgia, but even Central Asia. This is South Caucasus, Ukraine, Moldova, Baltic countries. Those are interconnected and those are the same targets of Russia. I mean, thing is, that first I mean, farther you go to the east, easier prey you are for the Russian regime. And western you go more protections, more protection you have.

So, for example, Baltic countries have NATO and European Union membership. Ukraine gets lots of attention and support. And unfortunately, the authoritarian, I mean, the process of establishment of authoritarian regime in Georgia is not in a spotlight for the Western media, but we're the same people, you know, we are of this process and for sure, this process escalated in 2022.

Now, let me tell the listeners that in 2022, European Union opened up the gates for Georgia, Ukraine, and Moldova to become EU members. I mean, if there had not been the war in Ukraine, we would not been given this opportunity for decade or more, right? So this opportunity opened up in 2022, but, you know, the frontline between the west and Russia, now is in Ukraine.

So the frontline, which is now between the Russian troops and the Ukrainian Armed Forces is the same front line between the West and Russia. And unfortunately, Georgia is East to that. So the West doesn't have enough leverages in Georgia. And Georgia, it's like, we are 3.3, 3.5 million people, unlike Ukraine, you know, in Ukraine, you have 40 million people and Georgia is, would be something like 5 percent of Ukrainian territory, or can be even less.

So, that is why Russia has a bit easier time in Georgia, than in Ukraine. But Georgians, though not in trenches and not by weapons and not by missiles, but the streets and their offices, wherever they work, whatever leverage they have to protest, they're fighting and they're fighting very heavily and people are injured. People are arrested. People are given charges of six, seven years for nothing, for literally nothing.

And you know, what we expect now from the United States and from the West would be at least as the sanctioning, the regime. You know, in the House of Representatives, Senator Joe Wilson sponsored the bill, so-called MEGOBARI Act. Megobari in Georgian means friend. And this act, on the one hand, suggests giving generous support to Georgia, should Georgian government choose to go through, I mean, follow the European Union integration process to respect rule of law, and the democratic principles. But should you choose to establish the authoritarian regime there will be heavy sanctions applied against the individuals who are now fighting against liberties in Georgia.

And this is absolutely necessary to pass this bill. And even before the bill is passed, because I understand that now it's a transition process in the U.S. politics and Georgia cannot be the number one priority or even number 10 priority in the list, as I understand, but before even passing the MEGOBARI Act it's possible for the State Department to sanction further the major key players of the usurper government.

Anna Hickey: How has the European Union responded to first the declaration that Georgia was not going to pursue accession with the EU and then to the protests in the crackdown?

Beka Kobakhidze: There are statements. So, luckily we have president who has very little power, and in 18 days her term expires. So on the 29th of December, her term’s expires. So she was met by President Macron. She also met with President Trump. In Paris today, President Macron called Bidzina Ivanishvili, who's a shadow figure, basically. I mean, look how ridiculous the scene is. Formally speaking, by the constitution, the leader of the country is the prime minister, but President Macron President Macron did not call the prime minister. He called Bidzina Ivanishvili, who is just an oligarch. His official position is honorary chair of the ruling party.

It's like, you know, it was in Gaddafi regime in Libya that Gaddafi didn't hold any formal position in the government, but he was ruling the country. So yeah, Macron called Ivanishvili and pushed him to respect freedom of expression, to go back to the EU path, and to have a dialogue with the population because he doesn't have any sort of dialogue with the population. His only language is crackdown right now.

And also as individual EU countries. I mean, you cannot adopt the sanctions because it needs a full consensus. So all EU, European Union member countries should agree on the sanctions, but unfortunately, there is authoritarian government of Viktor Orban in Hungary. And Viktor Orban vetoes everything what is related to sanctioning pro-Russian regimes, and he also vetoes sanctions against Russia. So he's the Trojan horse of Russia, basically.

But individual countries, for example, it started with the Baltic countries. Baltic countries introduced sanctions against the leaders of the police, against the leaders of the government. And I hope that the bigger countries like Germany, France, Italy, and others will sanction the government. And I mean, the West takes steps very slowly, but I hope that, I mean, every day for the protest it is difficult to survive because every day comes with victims. And I very much hope that the U.S. and European Union will act faster rather than slower.

Anna Hickey: Where do you see the protests going from here? I know currently the protesters, as you mentioned, are just calling for going back to kind of EU accession. They're not necessarily calling for toppling the current government. But how do you see the protests developing?

Beka Kobakhidze: The government has lost all sorts of credibility. Even if government publicly commits itself that they will continue pursuing the EU path, nobody is going to believe because they're liars. I mean, they lie. I mean, whatever they say, they always lie. Because there is no trust whatsoever. So what protesters are asking is new elections, because the elections, which was held by the government, was just a sham. It was sham elections.

There are three demands, basically, one is liberation of political prisoners. This is over 400 people who they have imprisoned. Secondly, new elections. And thirdly the current president must be allowed to nominate people in state security agencies and also in the Central Election Commissions, the figures who we may trust, because new elections with the current security apparatus and with the current Central Election Commissions will be again sham elections.

Anna Hickey: How likely do you think that those ones will be awarded by the government? Do you think the Georgian Dream will end up, it's obviously very early days, it's been, I believe, under two weeks, but how do you see the Georgian Dream continuing to respond to these protests?

Beka Kobakhidze: Well, there will be further violence, I'm sure. I mean, is this, it's not easy, you know, to fight the authoritarian regimes and to defeat authoritarian regimes. It doesn't have, this doesn't happen overnight. You know, this will take months of fight. So, for example in Syria, Assad was defeated after 13 years, through the means of arms. But of course we are not, we don't want to have Syria in Georgia and there will not be any military clashes, of course.

But Georgian resistance looks more like a Gandhist resistance. So the Gandhi, I mean, the way Gandhi was resisting the British rule. So, passive progress, like, you know, if they beat you, you don't beat them, but you show up again and you again, you protest again. You protest, you repeat it, you repeat it, you repeat it. And I mean, this is what I'm witnessing in the streets of Tblisi, that hundreds of people are taken to prison, but even more show up.

I mean, at some stage, this wave of protests may go away, but as soon as government takes a further step, the government's role is to establish authoritarian rule. So, for example this protest may chill down a bit, but if they decide to evict the president from the palace, the protest will come out again.

Then, and this will be another phase. And then when the government chooses to close down independent universities, the protest will come out again. When the government goes after the NGOs, the protest will come out again. And when I'm saying come out, I don't mean for a single day or two, because each time people decide to come out, this creates the whole crisis. And this continues for weeks and months so there will not be easy life for the government, and the only things they rely on are bayonets.

I mean, these masked groups of people, whom our very good journalists, by the way, investigated their identity. So they basically, not physically, but through their investigations, unmasked them and they went to their homes. spoke with their families, ashamed them. And you know, it's easy to destroy bones of the peaceful citizens when they're behind the mask. But when you are unmasked and it's revealed what have you, what you have done, then neighbor will not say hello to you and your son and daughter will know that you are bringing bloody money at home and the wife will be ashamed of you, et cetera, et cetera. So, this must go on.

I mean, we don't have other choices. I mean, choices to either we have to emigrate, or we have to stay and fight. So far, we're capable of fighting, we just need support. I mean, any sign of support from the outside will embolden protest and any sort of silence will embolden the authoritarian regime.

Anna Hickey: On that note, we will leave it there. Thank you so much for joining me on the Lawfare Podcast today.

Beka Kobakhidze: Anna, thank you so much for your interest.

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