Armed Conflict Foreign Relations & International Law

Rational Security: The "Ukraine in the Membrane" Edition

Scott R. Anderson, Eric Ciaramella, Anastasiia Lapatina, Francis Farrell
Thursday, December 5, 2024, 12:30 PM
Scott Anderson was joined by Eric Ciaramella and Anastasiia Lapatina, as well as special guest Francis Farrel. 

Published by The Lawfare Institute
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This week, Scott was joined by his Lawfare colleagues Eric Ciaramella and Anastasiia Lapatina, as well as special guest Kyiv Independent reporter Francis Farrell, for an episode committed to one big topic: what Trump’s return to the White House might mean for Ukraine. They tackled the issue in three parts:

  • “What Condition My Attrition Is In.” By most accounts, after more than two years of fighting, the conflict in Ukraine has come to look very much like a war of attrition. How do Ukrainians feel about the state of the conflict and the prospects looking forward? What steps are the outgoing Biden administration taking to change the calculus—and what impact might they still have, if any?
  • “New Boss, Same as the Old Boss.” Donald Trump’s return to the White House promises a sea change in how the United States has approached the conflict in Ukraine. What do his early national security appointments—and engagements with, among others, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky—tell us about his plans? And where do they seem likely to lead?
  • “Flipping the Board.” Trump’s election—and whatever outcome he is able to bring about in Ukraine—has the potential to reset the strategic environment in Europe (and the U.S. strategic relationship with Russia) more generally. What might regional security—and security for Ukraine specifically—look like by 2028?

For object lessons, Nastya recommended Catherine Belton’s new book, “Putin’s People,” on the return and rise to power of the KGB. Eric gave a belated endorsement for the Oscar-winning South Korean film “Parasite,” and urged folks to watch it as a celebration of the democratic resilience South Korea demonstrated this week. Scott plugged the holiday variety show he was attending that evening and urged listeners to welcome the season with Aimee Mann’s “One More Drifter in the Snow.” And Francis recommended GeoGuessr, the geolocation game that has taken the KI newsroom by storm.

Rational Security will be saying goodbye to 2024 in its traditional fashion: by discussing listener-submitted topics and object lessons! To submit yours, call in to (202) 743-5831 to leave a voicemail or email rationalsecurity@lawfaremedia.org. Just do it by COB on December 18!

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Scott R. Anderson is a fellow in Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution and a Senior Fellow in the National Security Law Program at Columbia Law School. He previously served as an Attorney-Adviser in the Office of the Legal Adviser at the U.S. Department of State and as the legal advisor for the U.S. Embassy in Baghdad, Iraq.
Eric Ciaramella, a Lawfare contributing editor, is also a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he specializes in Ukraine and post-Soviet affairs. He previously served in the U.S. government as an intelligence analyst and policy official, including at the CIA, National Intelligence Council, and National Security Council.
Anastasiia Lapatina is a Ukraine Fellow at Lawfare. She previously worked as a national reporter at Kyiv Independent, writing about social and political issues. She also hosted and produced podcasts “This Week in Ukraine” and “Power Lines: From Ukraine to the World.” For her work, she was featured in the “25 Under 25” list of top young journalists by Ukraine’s Media Development Foundation, as well as “Forbes 30 Under 30 Europe” class of 2022 in the category Media and Marketing.
Francis Farrell is a reporter at the Kyiv Independent

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