Criminal Justice & the Rule of Law Terrorism & Extremism

Sustained Sequences of Non-Spectacular Terrorist Attacks

Robert Chesney
Monday, March 19, 2012, 5:00 PM
In most years when I teach my seminar on the history of terrorism and US counterterrorism law  and policy, the question arises why terrorists do not more frequently embrace the "Beltway Sniper" model--i.e., one or a few persons engaging in relatively random, one-off shootings, with a high-probability of tactical success and of remaining free to act repeatedly, as opposed to reaching for difficult-to-achieve, high-intensity attacks  like bombings of major public buildings.  Someone usually points out that the latter, if successful, will generate a huge amount of attention, while any single kill

Published by The Lawfare Institute
in Cooperation With
Brookings

In most years when I teach my seminar on the history of terrorism and US counterterrorism law  and policy, the question arises why terrorists do not more frequently embrace the "Beltway Sniper" model--i.e., one or a few persons engaging in relatively random, one-off shootings, with a high-probability of tactical success and of remaining free to act repeatedly, as opposed to reaching for difficult-to-achieve, high-intensity attacks  like bombings of major public buildings.  Someone usually points out that the latter, if successful, will generate a huge amount of attention, while any single killing along the lines of a shooting will resonate far less.  Someone else then usually points out that a sufficiently sustained sequence of low-intensity attacks could in fact generate quite a panic, ala the Beltway sniper.  I usually end the discussion by thanking God we don't actually see that latter model put to the test.  When I heard a few mornings ago that there had been a second drive by shooting of French soldiers, in France, I became quite concerned that this was precisely the scenario unfolding there.  Now comes word that the same shooter (or at least the same gun) has killed a teacher and three children at a Jewish school in Toulouse.  It may be, in the end, that these murders are just that, murders without political motivation.  It may be, though, that we are seeing an example of the comparatively easy-to-achieve model of low-intensity terrorism.

Robert (Bobby) Chesney is the Dean of the University of Texas School of Law, where he also holds the James A. Baker III Chair in the Rule of Law and World Affairs at UT. He is known internationally for his scholarship relating both to cybersecurity and national security. He is a co-founder of Lawfare, the nation’s leading online source for analysis of national security legal issues, and he co-hosts the popular show The National Security Law Podcast.

Subscribe to Lawfare