The Week That Was

Daniel Byman considered how the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria will affect the Middle East and U.S. interests in the region. Byman warned that—though the defeat of the “bloodthirsty dictator” should largely be celebrated—the new government of Syria under Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) and its leader Abu Mohammad al-Jolani present new and complex dangers.

Scott R. Anderson and Alex Zerden discussed the challenges of sanctions against Syria amid the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime. Anderson and Zerden examined potential ways to resolve HTS’s status as a designated foreign terrorist organization, eight executive orders imposing the Syrian government, Syria’s long-standing status as a State Sponsor of Terrorism, policy recommendations, and more.

On Dec. 12 at 3 p.m. ET, Benjamin Wittes talked to Anderson, Middle East Institute Senior Fellow Charles Lister, and Syrian pro-democracy activist Ammar Abdulhamid about Syrian rebels toppling Assad’s regime in Syria, Assad’s escape to Russia, Israeli troops crossing the Israel-Syria border, and the implications for the broader region. Lawfare material supporters on Patreon and Substack received a Zoom invitation to join the conversation live and had the opportunity to submit questions for the panelists in advance. Become a Lawfare material supporter here. A recording is available on Lawfare’s YouTube channel.

Wittes spoke with Abdulhamid on the fall of Assad, including Abdulhamid’s personal relationship with the deposed Syrian president—and once schoolmate—as well as Abdulhamid’s analysis on the Islamist leadership of HTS and the wider rebel opposition, Abdulhamid’s exile, and more.

In one of two installments this week of Lawfare’s Foreign Policy Essay series, Rueben Dass examined HTS’s use of drones in its victory over Assad in Syria, including the specialized Al-Shaheen Brigade drone unit and its drone arsenal, HTS’s success as evidence of the strategic value of tech-driven warfare, and more.

On Rational Security, Anderson sat down with Wittes, Eugenia Lostri, and Tyler McBrien to break down the week's big national security news, including the collapse of the Assad regime in Syria; the nomination of Kash Patel and President Joe Biden’s pardon of his son, Hunter; the Fifth Circuit’s landmark Tornado Cash decision; and more.

Wittes discussed FBI Director Christopher Wray’s announcement that he would be resigning before President-elect Donald Trump takes office in January. Wittes suggested that—especially when contrasted with the decisions of James Comey in the first Trump term—Wray’s voluntary resignation to avoid firing and humiliation, as well as his refusal to “throw himself in front of a train to protect core institutions of democracy,” are tantamount to cowardice.

Wittes considered whether the Senate is beginning to push back against several of Trump’s controversial nominations to senior positions within his administration. Wittes pondered whether Republican senators have begun to assess the candidates on the basis of merit rather than loyalty to Trump, particularly with regard to Pete Hesgeth—the nominee for secretary of defense currently in a maelstrom of sexual assault allegations—and former Rep. Tulsi Gabbard, Trump’s nominee to be director of national intelligence despite links to Assad.

Jack Goldsmith explored the Federal Vacancies Reform Act (FVRA), which will allow Trump to appoint virtually any Senate-confirmable position within the executive branch on an “acting” basis. Goldsmith argued that the prospect of recess appointments is largely overblown, and that FVRA represents a much more straightforward—and effective—option as Trump seeks to fill his administration with loyalists while circumventing the Senate advice and consent process.

Olivia Manes shared the Office of the Inspector General’s (OIG) report on the FBI’s handling of intelligence in the lead up to Jan. 6, including its failure to “canvass its field offices in advance of January 6, 2021, to identify any intelligence […] about potential threats to the January 6 Electoral Certification,” contrary to previous FBI testimony.

Ben Green shared the OIG’s report on whether the Justice Department violated its own policies when it obtained text and phone records of two members of Congress and 43 Congressional staffers in 2017 and 2018, following the publication of articles in the news media that contained classified information.

On Lawfare Daily, Goldsmith sat down with Glenn Fine to talk about Fine’s new book, “Watchdogs: Inspectors General and the Battle for Honest and Accountable Government,” including the history of inspectors general and early constitutional concerns about their role, Fine’s experiences at both the Department of Justice and the Department of Defense, the 2022 inspector general reforms, Fine’s own proposed reforms to improve inspector general oversight, and more.

Manes shared the House of Representatives’ final report into the Butler, Pa. and West Palm Beach, Fl. assassination attempts on Trump during his 2024 presidential campaign, including 11 recommendations to the United States Secret Service and Congress to prevent similar incidents in future.

Dan Maurer examined the scope of presidential authority to pardon U.S. military personnel convicted of war crimes, and outlined how Congress could limit the executive’s “near total control” of U.S. military operations and his ability to officially forgive battlefield misconduct. 

Lindsay Freeman urged Congress to not pass sanctions in response to the International Criminal Court’s (ICC) Pre-Trial Chamber’s issuance of arrest warrants for Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant. Freeman argued that the ICC’s critical role in global security—the product of its jurisdiction over transnational crimes against humanity, the threat of non-state actors, and its independence—would make sanctions against it an unwise and deeply ineffective course of action.

McBrien discussed France’s rhetorical volte-face on the issue of executing ICC arrest warrants. McBrien considered the history of ICC arrest warrant non-compliance, pointing to France’s previous, conflicting positions on immunity as evidence of its treatment of the ICC as a “political football.”

Stefan Bakumenko reflected on the 30th anniversary of the Battle of Grozny, which began the First Chechen War. Bakumenko discussed the battle’s stakes, deadly combat, aftermath—which saw the burning of villages and massacres of hundreds of civilians— enduring legacy, urban warfare, and more.

On Lawfare Daily, Anastasiia Lapatina sat down with Halyna Yanchenko to discuss the Ukrainian ban on arms exports, the growing pains of the country’s defense industry after Russia’s invasion, why exporting weapons will benefit Ukrainian and global security, and more.

David A. Reese argued that the overclassification of open-source intelligence reduces transparency, delays responses to security threats, and prevents important coordination between allies, citing examples from the war against Islamic State and nuclear proliferation by North Korea. Reese suggested possible solutions, including overhauling policy, technological integration, enhanced collaboration, and more.

On Lawfare Daily, Anna Hickey talked to Beka Kobakhidze about the protests in Georgia over Prime Minister Irakli Kobakhidze’s suspension of Georgia’s accession process to the European Union, including Russia’s growing influence in the country and the broader region, the violence the government has used to crack down on the protests, and more.

In one of two installments this week of Lawfare’s Foreign Policy Essay series, Jessica Davis detailed “foreign interference financing,” a statecraft tool hostile states use money to manipulate other states. Davis argued that multilateral cooperation between countries on countermeasures—such as autonomous sanctions, civil lawsuits, and education—is essential to combating this threat.

William Yuen Yee discussed the Philippines' screening laws on foreign investments, including how the laws were implemented, their successes and failures, U.S.-Philippines collaboration, Yee’s suggested improvements, and more.

On Lawfare Daily, Kevin Frazier sat down with Kevin Xu to discuss China’s ambitions in artificial intelligence (AI), including its current AI capacities, the likely effect of updated export controls on Chinese AI efforts, the different AI development strategies being deployed by the U.S. and China, and more.

Andrew C. Adams and Daniel Podair discussed several troublesome provisions within the United Nations’ draft convention on cybercrime. Adams and Podair highlighted the conundrum the draft convention—if ratified—could create for the Justice Department, namely its potential obligation to comply with bad-faith or problematic mutual legal assistance treaty requests from foreign adversaries.

In the latest installment of the Seriously Risky Business cybersecurity newsletter, Tom Uren explored the Federal Communications Commission’s demand that telecommunications companies strengthen their cybersecurity, how an influence campaign on TikTok affected the Romanian presidential elections, how U.S. sanctions have failed to prevent Chinese cyber espionage, and more.

On Lawfare Daily, featuring audio from a panel conversation co-hosted by Lawfare and NYU’s Center for Technology Policy, Alan Z. Rozenshtein, Scott Brennen, Mary-Rose Papandrea, and Anupam Chander discussed the recent D.C. Circuit decision upholding the TikTok divestment-or-ban law, what this means for the future of both TikTok and the First Amendment, and more.

On Chatter, David Priess talked to Ben Tallis about the challenges of German grand strategy since 1945, the country's musical culture in the 1950s and 1960s, the origins and evolution of Kraftwerk and its members' effort to reconceptualize German identity, how Germany became the most respected country in the world by 2020, German rearmament since 2022, and more.

Lawfare is holding an end-of-year auction on a range of items the team has gathered over the course of our Trump Trials & Tribulations series, including film photos from outside the courthouse in New York, courtroom sketches by Lawfare staff, a rare courtroom access ticket signed by the New York trial coverage team, and more. You can register to bid for the items on Lawfare’s Givebutter.

Please submit your questions to be answered on our annual “Ask Us Anything” podcast, an opportunity for you to ask Lawfare editors and contributors this year’s most burning questions. To ask by phone, call (202) 743-5831, wait through the rings, and leave a voicemail with your name, where you’re calling from (if you like), your question, and whether or not you have a specific member of the Lawfare team in mind to answer. You can also record your question and send it to askusanythinglawfare@gmail.com, or include a written question in the body of your email. We look forward to hearing from you! Please submit your questions by Dec. 18.

And that was the week that was.