Today's Headlines and Commentary

“For the first time in the two years since the leader of Islamic State, Abu Bakr al Baghdadi, proclaimed the existence of an ‘Islamic caliphate’ straddling Syria and Iraq, the jihadi group is at real risk of losing much of the territory it holds.” According to the Guardian, “Four ISIS strongholds - two in Syria and two in Iraq - are now under concerted attack, and in all cases the militants defending them are struggling to contain well-organized and resourced assaults planned over many months.”

However, even as the self-proclaimed caliphate starts to decline, “splits are fast emerging among those fighting them that could rapidly wind back the gains. What happens next, say tribal leaders, could end up re-invigorating ISIS by driving the very communities that the war is trying to liberate right back into their hands.” More from the Guardian here.

Part of those concerted attacks against ISIS strongholds in the region is the Syrian army’s new advance towards Raqqa. Reuters shares that the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights indicates that “the Syrian army backed by Russian airstrikes has advanced toward Islamic State-held Raqqa province in a new offensive, nearing a region where U.S.-backed militias have also attacked the jihadist group.” However, a Syrian military source tells Reuters that “reports of an attack targeting Raqqa were ‘expectations,’ and that both Raqqa and Deir al Zor, also in the hands of IS insurgents, were possible targets of army operations.”

As Russia continues to back the Syrian government with airstrikes in the conflict, Moscow is considering a ground operation in the war torn country. Al Jazeera reports that “Russian President Vladimir Putin may deploy special operations forces on the ground in Syria, a move that might be made to ensure ‘a decisive victory.’” The Russian president allegedly is discussing the possibility with his military commanders.

Russia has increased its attacks in Syria within the last week, but apparently, those attacks are not hitting the Islamic State. The United States is claiming that Russia is “only pretending” to target Islamic State terrorists in its campaign in the Syrian civil war. According to a U.S. intelligence official speaking with the Daily Beast, “despite claims they are focusing on [al Qaeda in Syria] and [ISIS], Russia and Assad have primarily targeted the moderate opposition.” The same official also tells the Beast that “Moscow’s offer of joint operations with the United States [against ISIS] was a blatant attempt to deflect attention from its targeting of moderate opposition, and sadly, innocent Syrians trying to survive the disaster Assad has created.” Read more from the Daily Beast here.

Meanwhile, “the United Nations on Thursday dimmed any prospect of immediate airdrops of aid to Syrian civilians trapped by the war, despite an expired deadline imposed on Syria’s government to allow unfettered humanitarian access by land.” Read that story from the New York Times. The United Nations’ decision not to airdrop aid has infuriated the Syrian opposition. The Guardian shares that the U.N. is reluctant to go ahead with airdrops “without the permission of the Russian government.”

In other news regarding Syria, Bouthaina Shaaban, one of President Bashar al Assad’s top advisers, appeared via Skype at the National Press Club yesterday and provided a 20 minute speech on the conflict in Syria. Shaaban, who also is blacklisted by the United States government, “defended her government defiantly, assailed the Obama administration as being insufficiently committed to defeating the Islamic State and blamed Western news media for perpetuation what she called a ‘false narrative’ about Syria and Mr. Assad’s government.” The New York Times writes that “Dr. Shaaban's presentation was a direct challenge to the approach the Obama administration has taken in Syria, where the United States has worked to empower rebel groups and shepherd international peace talks aimed at bringing about a political transition there and an end to hostilities.”

The battle against the Islamic State in Iraq continues as well, despite a slowing operation in Fallujah due to concerns for civilians. The Associated Press reports that “Iraqi officers said Thursday that the large number of civilians in the city was slowing down the military operation, because it means fewer airstrikes can be carried out.”

“Behind the rise of a paramilitary force in Iraq credited with saving the country from Islamic State is an Iran-trained jihadist the U.S. wants far from the battlefield.” The Wall Street Journal details Jamal Jaafar Ibrahimi, known mostly as Abu Mahdi al Mohandes, as the “most influential commander in the Popular Mobilization Forces, or PMF.” More from the Journal here.

“Evil doesn’t always reveal itself through goose-stepping armies or skyscrapers collapsing on a clear autumn day. Sometimes, it’s only a sun-bleached bone in a field.” The Daily Signal has the latest on “the faces of evil” as they survey the ISIS killing fields in northern Iraq. Check that piece out here.

France-led efforts to resuscitate peace talks between Israel and Palestine began earlier today in Paris, without Israeli and Palestinian officials present. According to Reuters, representatives from the Middle East Quartet, the United Nations, Arab League, and more than 20 states attended the summit where French Foreign Minister Jean Marc Ayrault warned that “hopes of a ‘two-state solution’ in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict are in ‘serious danger.’” The Washington Post tells us that Secretary of State John Kerry is attending the peace talks; however, he’s there to “learn and listen - not to lead.”

The Israelis and Palestinians would much rather have Egypt broker the potential peace deal between the two nations. The Wall Street Journal shares that “Israeli and Palestinian officials have been pushing Egypt’s President Abdel Fattah Al Sisi to assume a lead mediating role in attempts to restart a fraught peace process ahead of a conference in Paris on Friday.” Some officials from Israel and Palestine “believe that Mr. Sisi can act as an honest broker between the two sides as security cooperation between Egypt and Israel is at unprecedented levels and the Egyptian leader had indicated he is committed to establishing a Palestinian state.” Read more from the Journal here.

In Afghanistan, the Taliban’s new tactics are allowing the insurgent group to gain new ground in the country’s south, even if it means taking over an empty village. “First they storm a checkpoint, kill all the police, seize their weapons and equipment and effectively cut off the main road to a remote village.” Then the insurgency waits. “Food supplies soon dwindle and prices rise, forcing villagers to abandon their homes and move to where they can afford to eat and live.” And then, the Taliban moves in. The Associated Press has the latest on the Taliban’s new tactics here.

“Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei said on Friday Tehran had no intention of cooperating on regional issues with its main enemies, the United States and ‘evil’ Britain.” Additionally, the supreme leader accused the United States “of not being committed to a nuclear deal reached between Tehran and six major powers, including the United States, in 2015 that aims to curb the country’s disputed nuclear program.”

In the latest security news stemming from Europe, Germany has arrested four individuals from Syria on suspicion of plotting an attack against Düsseldorf. The New York Times reports that German prosecutors “said three men, identified as Hamza C., 27, Mahood B, 25, and Abd Arahman A. K., 31, were detained by the police in the states of North Rhine-Westphalia, Brandenburg, and Baden-Württemberg. The police acted on charges issued Wednesday and based on information acquired from a fourth man, identified only as Saleh A., 25, who spoke to the French authorities about the plot after he was detained in Paris in February.” The plot involved suicide bombings and attacks with firearms and explosives. Two of the suspects entered Germany last year as Syrian refugees. In light of the arrests, earlier today, Germany’s Justice Ministry announced that it is “investigating about 180 terror suspects who have returned from Syria or have links to militant groups there.” More on that story from Reuters here.

North Korean analysts are saying that “a recent string of unsuccessful missile tests by North Korea, and the release of a video showing the launch of a different weapon, reflected a frantic drive by its leader, Kim Jong-un, to bolster his political standing before a high-profile dialogue with China.” The New York Times has more here.

Amidst increasing tensions in the South China Sea, China’s navy will send five warships to join the Rim of the Pacific (RIMPAC) exercise hosted by the United States this summer. Reuters tells us that RIMPAC, billed as the world’s largest international maritime exercise, is held every two years in Hawaii in June and July. Additionally, “critics of the Obama administration, including U.S. Senator John McCain, have said the United States should bar China from the drills to show U.S. disapproval of its military actions.”

The Botnet Protection Act is receiving some pushback from civil liberties groups. According to the Hill, “the legislation would ‘create new authority for the government to hack computers that could result in severe collateral damage, and would give users no recourse if their systems are harmed,’ a coalition of 14 tech advocacy groups wrote in a Wednesday letter to lawmakers.” More from the Hill here.

Guantanamo detainee Mohamedou Ould Slahi, who wrote the bestseller Guantanamo Diary, “appeared before a secretive government panel in a bid to win his release - an example of a government prosecution that was derailed by alleged torture during interrogations.” The Wall Street Journal details Mr. Slahi’s hearing here. Another longtime detainee was set to appear before the military commission hearings yesterday, however, his appearance was “abruptly postponed.” Abu Zubaydah, who the CIA tortured by waterboarding and “concluded should be kept incommunicado the rest of his life,” “made it all the way to the war court door but never stepped inside to testify about conditions in Guantanamo’s clandestine Camp 7.” According to the Miami Herald, Zubaydah’s “Navy lawyer announced in court that he would object to any questions that could incriminate his client, prompting lawyers to postpone the testimony until July at the earliest.”

In a separate case, a Somali detainee, in his first U.S. court appearance since being captured in 2004, told a military judge that he has experienced intentional noises and vibrations inside GTMO’s secretive prison, Camp 7. The Associated Press tells us that Hassan Guleed, a suspected member of East Africa al Qaeda, “portrayed the sounds and vibrations as well as chemical odors in testimony at the U.S. base in Cuba as ‘a kind of pressure’ intended to make detainees cooperate with authorities.” Guleed’s claims of the noises and vibrations seem to echo those of Khalid Sheik Mohammad and Zubaydah.

The Department of State released the newest Country Report on Terrorism for the year 2015 yesterday. According to the report, global terrorist attacks went down by 13%. The BBC has more here. Additionally, you can watch the State Department press briefing announcing the report here.

Democratic presidential frontrunner Hillary Clinton delivered a national security address yesterday in San Diego. In the speech, Clinton attacked presumptive Republican nominee Donald Trump and said that the business mogul is “unfit” to be the Commander-in-Chief. CNN sums up Clinton’s address here, and Time has the full transcript.

Parting Shot: Think Congress doesn’t pass any laws? Guess again. “A new survey shows that for the past 30 years, Congress has steadily passed an increasing number of ‘secret laws’ - provisions that are kept from the public eye.” Read more on what you didn’t even know became law by Vocativ.

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Stewart Baker shared the latest Steptoe Cyberlaw Podcast, featuring an interview with Angelos Keromytis.

Clara Spera covered the May 30 morning sessions of the 9/11 military commissions at Guantanamo Bay.

A. Dirk Moses reviewed Philippe Sand’s new book, East West Street: On the Origins of “Genocide” and “Crimes Against Humanity.”

Paul Rosenzweig pondered the powers of Trump and the Internet “kill switch.”

Richard Nephew commented on what the United States can do to guard against a proliferation cascade in the Middle East.

Jack Goldsmith and Benjamin Wittes announced a new exciting opportunity for young lawyers to work with both the Hoover Institution and Lawfare.

Paul Rosenzweig also flagged a “must read” article on the Islamic State’s genocide.

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