Today's Headlines and Commentary

The Mosul offensive has reached its third day as Kurdish and Iraqi government forces continue their push to recapture the villages surrounding the urban center, Reuters reports. As of yesterday, the coalition controlled 20 villages, although militants had already abandoned some of them before the offensive. But Islamic State fighters are battling more fiercely for other towns, notes the Washington Post. The insurgents are using suicide bombers, booby traps, IEDs, mortars, and tunnel networks, and U.S. officials believe that ISIS will add chemical weapons to the mix before the battle is over. Meanwhile, the Guardian documents the conditions in one such tunnel outside of Mosul.

Recapturing Mosul may be far easier than rebuilding the city afterwards. The New York Times chronicles what happened to three other cities—Ramadi, Tikrit, and Fallujah—during their liberation from Islamic State control.

The Syrian government worries that Islamic State militants retreating from Mosul will regroup in Syria and threaten the al-Assad regime, Reuters reports. The Syrian military and Hezbollah claim that the United States wants to push the extremists back into Syria, which Washington denies. But the coalition’s plan for the Mosul offensive does call for routes to the west of the city, which militants could use to escape to Syria, to be kept open in early stages of the operation. The goal is to draw Islamic State fighters out of the dense urban environment where civilians are at greater risk.

The Iranian-backed Shiite militia known as the Popular Mobilization Force (PMF) announced that it would close this potential escape route to the west of Mosul, Reuters tells us. The militia’s move will please its Iranian sponsors, who are also propping up the Syrian regime, and signals the PMF’s relevance in the offensive. Human rights groups have condemned PMF reprisals against Sunni communities and worry that PMF forces will abuse the Mosul population, reinforcing concerns about sectarian tensions after the offensive.

The United States is beginning to plan a coalition offensive against the Islamic State’s capital in Raqqa, the Wall Street Journal reports. Officials are meeting with Turkish, Kurdish, and British leaders to develop consensus on how to encircle and capture the city. The planning for Mosul will likely serve as a blueprint, including American air support, Kurdish forces encircling the city, and Sunni Arabs assaulting the urban center. Similar sectarian and ethnic difficulties as those plaguing the coalition retaking Mosul will likely affect the offensive on Raqqa.

American and British officials have criticized Russia’s plans for an eight-hour “humanitarian pause” in its airstrikes on Aleppo tomorrow, reports the Guardian. The western countries are pressuring Russia to accept a 48-hour ceasefire instead, which Moscow declined today on the grounds that the eight-hour window is sufficient for insurgents and civilians to evacuate Aleppo. Syrian officials announced that regime forces have moved away from two routes to guarantee safe passage to fleeing rebels, writes Reuters.

While the world is focused on Aleppo, the Syrian regime has been consolidating its control over the areas surrounding Damascus, notes Reuters. Government forces have successfully concluded a three-year siege against the suburb Daraya. As in Aleppo, the Syrian military has made these gains with the support of Hezbollah fighters and Russian air support.

In Yemen, both Houthi and Saudi forces are attacking each other just hours before a U.N. ceasefire goes into effect, writes Reuters. The potential ceasefire is the latest in a string of failed U.N. initiatives to reach a political end to the civil war in Yemen. The ceasefire will nominally last for 72 hours, but one U.S. official noted that, “As we saw in previous ceasefires, not all parties accept it.”

Turkish authorities killed an alleged Islamic State militant planning an attack in Ankara, reports the Post. There has been an increase in terror attacks in Turkey over the past year and a half, and Turkish police cited intelligence reports that more attacks may be imminent.

The Afghan national security forces continue to face numerous challenges. A gunman wearing an Afghan military uniform killed an American servicemember and civilian in Kabul today, notes the Post. The incident fits a long-standing pattern of Afghan troops turning on US advisors. Additionally, the United Nations released data showing growing numbers of civilian casualties at the hands of government forces, Reuters shares. “Casualties caused by pro-government forces rose 42 percent compared to last year, with 623 deaths and 1,274 injured.”

An al-Shabaab suicide bomber killed 11 in Afgoye, Somalia yesterday, Reuters reports. The attack destroyed a police station, but government forces retain control of Afgoye.

Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte announced that he will not bring up territorial disputes in the South China Sea with Chinese officials during his meetings in Beijing today, Reuters tells us. The deference is a reversal from the Philippines’ traditional stance on its territorial disputes with China. President Duterte has expressed skepticism that the country could prevail over China in a dispute, and instead plans to drop the issue in return for closer trade and potentially military ties.

Czech authorities arrested a Russian man who allegedly hacked American targets, writes the Post. The FBI cooperated with the Czech police in the arrest. Officials have not clarified what the man had hacked, except to say he was not involved in the DNC attack. Anonymous Washington officials claimed he was responsible for hacking a private company in 2012, the Times notes.

Russia continues to produce ground-launched cruise missiles in violation of a 1987 treaty on Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces, the Times reports. Washington accused Moscow of violating its obligations with flight tests in 2014, and now alleges that Russian production suggests the Kremlin’s intent to deploy the missiles. Russia has repeatedly denied violating the INF treaty, shifting the blame for violations to U.S. missile defense capabilities in Europe. U.S. officials have not yet laid out plans to pressure Moscow into compliance.

A four-way summit of Russian, Ukrainian, German, and French leaders taking place today seeks to make progress on the ongoing war in Ukraine, writes the Times. Neither Ukrainians nor pro-Russian separatists abide by the Minsk I or II protocols, and the key barrier to making progress toward implementing a political end to the fighting is securing the withdrawal of Russian military assets in eastern Ukraine—the existence of which Russia denies. German officials said that the European Union won’t decide on new sanctions against Russia this week for its intervention in Syria, Reuters comments. The move is likely designed to create space for political cooperation on Ukraine first.

The Ecuadorian embassy in London confirmed yesterday that it had cut the internet access of Wikileaks founder Julian Assange out of concern over Assange’s apparent effort to “interfere in the electoral processes” of the United States. Ecuador has not changed its position in support of Assange, who is sheltering in the embassy from Swedish investigators seeking to interview him regarding sexual assault allegations. But the embassy’s statement suggests that the country wants to keep its hands clean of Wikileaks’ controversial leaking of Democratic Party information, which some claim is an effort to swing the U.S. election for Donald Trump.

The Times profiles retired Lt. Gen Michael Flynn, one of Donald Trump’s most important national security advisors. Flynn has become abnormally partisan and active among retired generals, raising eyebrows within the government and the military with his activity as “the alternative right of the American national security establishment.”

In a first, the military judge presiding over the USS Cole case at Guantanamo Bay issued a subpoena to force a witness to testify in pretrial proceedings, reports the Miami Herald. The move raises questions about the authority of the war court to take such actions, which have no precedent.

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Dan Byman outlined the political challenges that will follow the military operation to retake Mosul.

Paul Rosenzweig shared some insights from a recent cybersecurity conference.

J. Dana Stuster updated the Middle East ticker with analysis on Mosul, Yemen, and Syria.

Nora Ellingsen analyzed charges against two men from Milwaukee for providing material support to the Islamic State.

Quinta Jurecic and Yishai Schwartz covered pretrial hearings in the 9/11 case at Guantanamo.

Mohamad Batal discussed best practices for refugee camps.

Stewart Baker uploaded the latest episode of the Steptoe Cyberlaw Podcast.

Benjamin Wittes outlined an agenda for how the next administration can foster national unity.

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