Today's Headlines and Commentary

Sectarian tensions are already simmering before the Raqqa offensive has really begun, the AP reports. Turkey is apprehensive about the possibility of Kurdish forces spearheading the final assault on the Islamic State’s capital. The U.S.-backed, Kurdish Syrian Democratic Forces have begun operations to liberate the towns outlying Raqqa, and have announced they have every intention of clearing Raqqa proper once they are done. Turkey argues that local Sunnis—backed by Turkish special forces, of course—would be best suited to recapture the Sunni-majority city. The Kurds have rejected the suggestion.

The United States promised to “work with” the Turkish government to craft a balanced coalition for the final push in the Raqqa offensive. Cooperation between Ankara and Washington on Syria has recently been strained by U.S. support for Kurdish forces, whom Turkey considers terrorist affiliates linked to a long-standing insurgency in southeast Turkey. The Turkish military has repeatedly struck these U.S.-backed rebels and has threatened to clear them from territory near Turkey’s borders.

The Syrian government and its allies are pushing farther in rebel-held eastern Aleppo, Reuters writes. Regime forces have retaken the 1070 Apartments district, an important neighborhood in the city’s east. Syrian rebels claim that the fight is not over, but the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights has confirmed the government and Hezbollah’s claims of having taken the area.

Russia may resume airstrikes “around” Aleppo within “hours,” Reuters notes. The Kremlin is also threatening to resume attacks on eastern Aleppo if rebels continue their offensive on government positions. Though Russia has nominally maintained a moratorium on airstrikes against eastern Aleppo since October 18, some observers have questioned its consistency, and numerous reports indicate that Russia has continued with airstrikes across the rest of Syria despite its unilateral policy on strikes in Aleppo.

The Admiral Kuznetsov, Russia’s only aircraft carrier, is about to arrive off the Syrian coast. The Washington Post notes that the presence of the decrepit ship is unlikely to change much in the conflict. But Russia’s ability to field a carrier for a foreign operation is an important symbol of its great power status, which Putin intends to showcase for domestic political consumption. The operations will also provide a valuable training opportunity for Russia’s naval aviators.

Coalition forces continue to bear down on Mosul, Al Jazeera reports. Kurdish Peshmerga fighters have cleared three quarters of the strategic town of Bashiqa, northeast of Mosul. Meanwhile, Iraqi government forces are moving deeper into the city from the east, but have encountered greater resistance as they move into Mosul proper. ISIS militants are using suicide car bombs, IEDs, elaborate networks of tunnels, and sniper fire to wear down the government’s special forces units.

The Obama administration must soon decide if U.S. troops will accompany coalition fighters into Mosul, Stars and Stripes tells us. The United States currently provides air support and has advisers embedded at the battalion and brigade levels. Officials have previously claimed that American operators would not enter the city, but have also warned that this position could change with conditions on the ground.

The U.S. military is preparing to receive as many as 700,000 civilians displaced by the Mosul offensive, the Wall Street Journal reports. Roughly 33,000 people have fled the city in the first three weeks of the campaign, which falls short of initial estimates. As Iraqi special forces penetrate deeper into the city and liberate the more populated areas, more citizens will likely leave Mosul.

The true extent of the Islamic State’s violence is coming to light as coalition forces liberate Mosul and the outlying areas. The Iraqi government is investigating a mass grave containing 100 decapitated corpses discovered in Hamam al-Alil, a town south of Mosul, the BBC writes. In the same city, Reuters reports that militants have abducted 295 former Iraqi security officials and 1,500 families. Their current status is unknown, but these actions are consistent with the extremists’ practices of executing veterans and taking civilians to use as human shields. Reuters profiles the experiences of the villagers in Hamam al-Alil.

The war in Iraq has brought out the worst of the Islamic State militants, but it has also brought out the best in some ordinary Iraqis. CNN profiles Ako Abdulrahman, a Peshmerga fighter who repeatedly drove into ISIS sniper fire in Kirkuk to rescue the wounded and recover the bodies of the dead, ultimately saving 70 people. "In my car, I carried Sunni, Shiite, Kurds, Turkmen and Christians,” he said. “I felt like I am truly Iraq and this is who everyone should be.”

The Shiite PMF militias are moving forward with their plans to recapture the town of Tal Afar, west of Mosul, Reuters observes. If the Iranian-backed forces can take the area, they can cut the Islamic State’s lines of communication from Syria to Mosul and prevent militants from fleeing to Syria, which the PMF’s Iranian patrons do not want. The militia claims it took control of the critical highway route this morning, and is now focused on capturing Tal Afar and a nearby air base.

Where is Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi? We’re not sure, the Los Angeles Times notes. Western intelligence agencies once believed he was in Mosul, but it is possible he escaped before the PMF could close off the route to Syria. While British foreign secretary Boris Johnson hinted last week that al-Baghdadi has likely fled, Western governments don’t know his precise location. If they did, U.S. military officials declare that “he would be killed at once.”

Both the Turkish government and the European Union are considering halting talks over Turkey’s bid to join the bloc, the Journal writes. Negotiations may cease over disagreement between the parties regarding Turkey’s aggressive crackdown following the failed coup attempt in July. While EU officials are concerned that the crackdown is imperiling the rule of law in Turkey, a halt to talks would cast into doubt both Turkey’s role in the ongoing fight against ISIS and its agreement on migration with the bloc.

Meanwhile, the Journal also describes the abuse that eight Turkish prisoners say was inflicted on them after their arrest following the coup. And in another sign of the tense relationship between Turkey, the EU, and their fellow NATO members, Reuters reports that Turkish defense officials have announced their openness to potentially purchasing a long-range missile defense system from any bidder—including Russia.

German police have arrested five men accused of recruiting for ISIS and forming a “national jihadist network,” the Post tells us. The men are believed to have tutored potential recruits in ISIS theology and appear to have succeeded in helping one would-be militant and his family travel to Syria to fight alongside the Islamic State. One of the suspects was identified last month by an ISIS deserter returning from Syria, who described the accused as the Islamic State’s “number one in Germany.” The investigation against the group reportedly began a year ago.

Once again, India and Pakistan have exchanged fire across the Line of Control in the disputed Kashmir region, the AP reports. At least three Pakistani civilians were killed and four wounded; one Indian soldier was killed and two wounded as well. A similar cross-border firefight killed three Pakistani civilians and wounded six yesterday. Tensions have been high in the region following a militant raid on an Indian army base in Kashmir this September.

The Philippines will not be getting rid of its military alliance with the United States entirely, Reuters writes. Despite the comments of Philippine President Rodrigo Duterte indicating his desire to sever ties with the country’s historic ally, Defense Secretary Delfin Lorenzana announced that the Philippines will maintain its alliance with the U.S. but will “reduce the number of activities,” including scrapping the two countries’ yearly joint naval exercises. The Pentagon plans to “seek … clarification through direct dialogue.”

Meanwhile, the Philippines’ new ambassador to China announced that—despite all appearances to the contrary—Beijing is indeed complying with this summer’s international tribunal ruling that invalidated controversial Chinese territorial claims in the South China Sea. China’s recent decision to allow Filipino fishermen access to the disputed Scarborough Shoal is, in effect, acquiescence to the ruling, the ambassador argued. Beijing has previously refused to acknowledge the legitimacy of the tribunal’s holding.

On Monday, the Chinese government passed into law a major piece of cybersecurity legislation that has already been criticized by human rights groups and business advocates as restrictive and overbroad. Reuters has more on the controversial law, which includes provisions allowing vague regulation of internet companies and undefined “critical information infrastructure operators.” Chinese officials said that the law was required to improve China’s cybersecurity as an “internet power.”

It’s finally Election Day, and the Daily Beast reports that all 50 states have requested election security assistance from the Department of Homeland Security. After a campaign that raised unusual questions about the security and integrity of American elections, state officials seem to have taken the federal government up on its offer to ascertain the security of voting machines and computer networks.

You might be wondering where Secretary of State John Kerry is spending his Election Day. The answer is: on a plane, headed toward Antarctica. Where else?

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Quinta Jurecic compiled Lawfare’s coverage of the 2016 election.

She also previewed the Week That Will Be.

Jimmy Chalk outlined the legal considerations at play in Kurdish territorial disputes with Iraq.

Philip Bobbitt commented on Trump, nuclear deterrence, and the electoral college.

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