Today's Headlines and Commentary

A gunman has shot and killed Russian ambassador to Turkey Andrey Karlov at an Ankara art gallery. Turkish authorities report that the gunman, who appears to have been an off-duty Turkish police officer, has been “neutralized.” Video captured of the event shows the shooter shouting in Turkish, “Don’t forget Aleppo! Don’t forget Syria!”

Russia has condemned the shooting as a terrorist attack. The incident is likely to further raise tensions between Russia and Turkey, whose relationship had recently entered a period of rapprochement following a chill over Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet that invaded Turkish airspace almost exactly a year ago.

Russia, Iran, and Turkey had previously been set to hold talks on the future of Syria in Moscow on Tuesday, Reuters writes. It is not clear how the attack will affect the talks.

The U.N. Security Council voted unanimously to send monitors to Aleppo to ensure safe passage for civilians and rebels fleeing east Aleppo under the terms of the evacuation deal, the Times reports. The resolution allows monitors to observe the evacuation following consultation with “interested parties,” a concession to Russia, which objected to a previous resolution that would have placed the evacuation entirely under U.N. supervision. Evacuations are continuing following days of disagreement over Iranian and government demands that rebels allow safe passage for wounded fighters trapped in Shiite villages besieged by rebel fighters.

A string of attacks hit across the Middle East across the last few days. In Yemen, an ISIS suicide bomber killed 48 people at a military base in Aden, the second ISIS attack on Yemeni security forces in a month. A second suicide bomber linked to the Islamic State killed eight Libyan soldiers near the city of Benghazi, a sign that the group is still capable of carrying out attacks in Libya despite the loss of its foothold in Sirte. In Jordan, gunmen opened fire in the city of Karak, killing seven security officers, two Jordanian civilians, and a Canadian tourist; authorities have not yet identified what group may be responsible. And in central Turkey, a car bomb killed at least 13 soldiers in an attack only a week after the recent bombing of an Istanbul soccer stadium by a militant Kurdish group.

Civilians trapped in Mosul during the ongoing battle are running low on food and water, the Times writes. As the offensive for Mosul drags on at a slower pace than expected, officials are growing concerned over the fate of the city’s civilian population, especially in the face of the Islamic State’s willingness to attack civilians in retaliation for coalition military action.

The incident sparked by China’s seizure of a U.S. underwater drone in international waters in the South China Sea ended without further escalation but with a great deal of confusion this weekend, as Beijing promised to return the drone hours before President-elect Donald Trump tweeted that China should be allowed to keep it. The drone’s seizure by a Chinese submarine rescue ship, which was unambiguously illegal under international law, marked a major spike in tensions between the two powers over disputed territory in the South China Sea. The Washington Post has more.

The New York Times reviews the response to China’s actions from both the outgoing and incoming administrations. The United States’ allies in Asia are concerned by what they see as the Obama administration’s subdued response to China’s provocation, demanding the return of the drone without any indication of willingness to dispatch military force in response, which might embolden similar Chinese actions in the future. On the other hand, Trump’s scattershot approach—which has already begun to inject itself into international affairs through the President-elect’s Twitter account—is a sharp contrast to Chinese President Xi Jinping’s “guarded, calculating” modus operandi.

Despite previous disagreement, the FBI, CIA, and the Office of the Director of National Intelligence are now in accord with the CIA’s assessment that Russian interference in the U.S. presidential election was aimed at assisting Donald Trump, the Post writes. Previously, FBI and ODNI had been hesitant to back the CIA’s report on the purpose of the Russia-backed hacking and leaking operation, though both agencies agreed on the presence of Kremlin meddling.

Donald Trump continues to refuse to accept the intelligence agencies’ conclusions on Russian interference. Incoming White House Chief of Staff Reince Priebus announced that the President-elect would be willing to accept these assessments if the intelligence community publicly “put[s] out a report” on the issue and specifically requested a statement from FBI Director James Comey, asserting that the agencies disagreed on the extent and purpose of Russian efforts despite news to the contrary. Meanwhile, Senators John McCain (R-AZ) and Chuck Schumer (D-NY) requested the formation of a Senate select committee on Russian hacking to conduct an investigation. The Times has more.

Given Trump’s already antagonistic relationship with the intelligence community and his comparatively light briefing schedule, the Post asks if the tradition of the President’s Daily Brief will continue in the new administration—a prospect that has raised concerns among intelligence officials who fear the consequences of an uninformed President. On that note, Politico reports on Trump’s characteristically idiosyncratic choice to continue employing private security forces post-election and likely post-inauguration as well. The arrangement will likely present security risks as the Secret Service struggles to coordinate with Trump’s contractors.

The Guardian reports that Trump’s pick for Secretary of State, Exxon Mobil CEO Rex Tillerson, served as the director of a U.S.-Russian oil firm registered in the Bahamas. While there is nothing legally untoward about this directorship, it may raise further questions regarding Tillerson’s controversial ties to the Kremlin, which could pose trouble during his confirmation hearing. Also on the appointments beat, Politico writes that wealthy businessman Vincent Viola, a retired Army major and graduate of West Point, will be Trump’s Secretary of the Army.

At the Miami Herald, Carol Rosenberg brings us the news from Guantanamo. The USS Cole case may go to trial as early as 2018, according to defense attorneys for Abd al-Rahim al-Nashiri. And South Africa has turned away Abu Wa’el Dhiab, a former Guantanamo detainee who sought refuge in the country due to unhappiness at his resettlement in Uruguay. Dhiab has now returned to Uruguay after being denied entry to South Africa.

In the Washington Post, Senator Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), vice chair of the Senate Select Committee on Intelligence, argues that that the nation’s classification system is no longer functioning and advises the new administration to “update its methods to protect classified national security information to reflect the realities of the digital era.”

ICYMI: This Weekend, on Lawfare

Julian Ku reviewed the “nonexistent” legal basis for China’s seizure of a U.S. underwater drone in the South China Sea on Friday.

James Kraska and Raul “Pete” Pedrozo examined how the drone’s seizure violated the law of the sea.

Quinta Jurecic summed up Lawfare’s week and posted the Lawfare Podcast, featuring a discussion of intelligence under a Trump administration.

In the Foreign Policy Essay, Audrey Alexander noted that the number of American female jihadis is increasing.

Clara Spera updated us on the latest pretrial hearings in the USS Cole case.

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