Today's Headlines and Commentary

National security adviser John Bolton said that North Korea could complete its denuclearization process “in a year,” reports the New York Times. Bolton’s announcement is far more optimistic than Secretary of State Mike Pompeo’s recent statements on the matter. On June 24, Pompeo said he would not put a timeline on negotiations with the North. According to a new intelligence assessment, U.S. officials now believe that North Korea has continued its nuclear production at a number of secret sites despite Kim Jong Un’s promises to President Trump in Singapore, reports NBC. The assessment, which was confirmed by more than a dozen American officials, cites satellite imaging to suggest the North has increased its production of the fuel used in its nuclear weapons. One U.S. official said “[t]here is absolute unequivocal evidence that they are trying to deceive the U[nited States]”

President Trump may officially accept Russia’s annexation of Crimea at the July summit, reports Bloomberg. When reporters asked the president whether he would be willing to recognize Russia’s claim on the territory, Trump responded “[w]e’re going to have to see.” Russia seized the Crimean peninsula from Ukraine in 2014 and maintained possession of the territory through a referendum that many considered illegal. The U.S. signed a United Nations’ resolution in 2014 that called upon states “not to recognize the alteration of the status” of Crimea. However, even if President Trump is open to discussing the Crimea situation, Russian President Vladimir Putin is not. On Monday, the Kremlin refused Trump’s offer to discuss the status of Crimea at the Helsinki summit, according to Newsweek. Kremlin press secretary Dmitry Peskov announced that “such an issue as Crimea cannot and will not be on the agenda because Crimea is an integral part of Russia.” Putin is willing to discuss “all other questions.”

The Washington Post reviewed a draft executive order that would declare a national emergency for U.S. telecommunications networks. The order would authorize the commerce secretary to prevent American companies from buying telecommunications equipment from any foreign providers on national-security grounds. Even though the executive order does not explicitly mention China, some experts who reviewed the document said it appears to target Chinese equipment makers such as Huawei and ZTE. A White House official said the order was in the “early deliberative” stage.

The Pentagon is considering the implications of a withdrawal or transfer of U.S. troops out of Germany, reports the Post. Earlier this year, President Trump expressed his surprise at the number of American troops currently stationed in Germany. Trump has complained on a number of occasions that other NATO members do not contribute enough money or security forces to the organization. Officials that confirmed the reports said the review was only an “internal exploration of options.” Nevertheless, European officials are scrambling to determine the credibility of the report.

Leftist candidate Andrés Manuel López Obrador won the Mexican presidential election on Sunday, reports the Times. López Obrador’s central campaign promises were to tackle corruption, reduce poverty, and address crime. President Trump congratulated López Obrador’s win on Twitter, saying Trump looks “very much forward to working with him.” Government officials in Canada and Mexico have signaled that López Obrador’s victory could pave the way for further NAFTA negotiations, according to the Wall Street Journal. Talks have stalled amid heightened tensions between the U.S. and Canada, exacerbated by Trump’s repeated threats to withdraw the United States from the treaty. The newly-elected Mexican president may align with Trump’s economic policies on a number of issues, such as higher labor standards in Mexico.

The United States tested its new B61-12 nuclear bomb on June 29, according to an announcement from the National Nuclear Security Administration. The B61-12 is a guided gravity bomb, and Friday’s flight was designed to test its “non-nuclear functions.” The test took place at the Tonopah Test Range in Nevada. Production is expected to be complete in 2020.
Fighting in Yemen is on an official “pause,” at least for the moment, reports the Hill. The coalition led by the United Arab Emirates, which invaded the port city of Hudaydah earlier this month, announced a “standstill” that will give the United Nations “seven to 10 days” to attempt peace negotiations. The invasion has raised global concerns that the offensive will exacerbate the existing humanitarian crisis within Yemen. Despite the UAE’s official announcement, correspondents on the ground report that fighting continues at key locations within the city.

A suicide bombing in Afghanistan killed 19 people, many of whom were members of the nation’s Sikh and Hindu minorities, according to BBC. The group was traveling to meet Afghan President Ashraf Ghani at the time of the attack. Avtar Singh Khalsa, one of the men killed in the attack, intended to run in October’s parliamentary elections. He was the only non-Muslim candidate planning to do so. A rising number of Sikhs and Hindus are fleeing the Muslim-majority nation for fear of religious persecution. The nephew of one of the victims told a Reuters reporter, “we cannot live here anymore.”

More than 270,000 people have been displaced in southwest Syria after two weeks of heavy fighting, reports Reuters. According to the United Nations refugee spokesperson in Jordan, the humanitarian catastrophe in Syria has worsened after a Russian-backed offensive began in southern Syria in mid-June. Both Israel and Jordan have said they will not accept the refugees, however the Jordanian foreign minister announced on Monday that he will fly to Moscow on July 4 to discuss a potential ceasefire that would allow the refugees to return home.

Egypt will begin building a nuclear power plant, funded by Russia, within the next two years, reports Reuters. In 2015, Russia agreed to pay for the construction of Egypt’s first nuclear power plant, a project that is expected to cost at least $25 billion. A spokesperson for Egypt’s energy and electricity ministry announced on July 1 that the plant is expected to be finished by 2026.

On June 29, SpaceX sent an artificially intelligent robot to space, according to the Post. The robot, called CIMON (Crew Interactive Mobile Companion), will provide technical support and limited conversation to astronauts at the International Space Station. Despite the company’s high hopes for CIMON, artificial intelligence is not expected to replace human astronauts in future space travel: According to a lead system engineer “The human crew will always be required.”

ICYMI: Last Weekend on Lawfare

Jen Patja Howell posted the latest episode of the Lawfare Podcast, in which Jim Baker and Orin Kerr discussed the Carpenter ruling.

Chris Meserole analyzed how technological advancements will impact United States’ military conflicts.

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