Today's Headlines and Commentary

What a mess. As we write, ISIS is shelling Kurdish defenders inside the town of Kobani; a U.S.-led coalition is bombing ISIS in the areas around Kobani; and the Turkish military (which is nominally a part of the coalition, but which has so far refused to intervene against ISIS), is targeting Kurdish PKK fighters in eastern Turkey. The question we face today: can the center hold? Today, Reuters brings us news that Turkey has bombed Kurdish PKK militants inside eastern Turkey. The Turkish paper Hurriyet reports that the bombing was in response to the “assassination, armed incidents, and attacks on security bases” that followed violent protests across the country last week.  The latter had to do with fear on the part of Turkey’s Kurdish population that Kobani was close to falling. The airstrikes are the first since 2013, when the Turkish government initiated a peace process with the PKK - a designated terrorist organization, but also a critical ally of the YPG forces protecting Kobani. Last week’s protests arose after Turkey refused to allow aid from Turkey’s Kurds to enter Syria and help save Kobani. Iraqi Kurds voiced similar concerns, suggesting that they will be unable to send reinforcements to Kobani unless Turkey opens a supply corridor. Renewed violence in Turkey sparks new fears that civil wars in Syria and Iraq could sow further instability in the broader Middle East. The Wall Street Journal has more on Turkey’s difficult decision wherein it “must either reverse decades-old state policy by backing Kurdish defenders of Kobani whom Ankara deems terrorists, or it must refuse all but humanitarian aid and risk inflaming tensions among Kurds” across the region. Yesterday, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu said, “Turkey will not embark on an adventure [in Syria] at the insistence of some other countries” without an “integrated strategy.” Elsewhere, in the Daily Beast, Jamie Dettmer reports on an anti-West speech by Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan that should curb any optimism for broad Turkish intervention. However, in the battle of Kobani, Kurdish fighters appeared to achieve a breakthrough, recapturing a strategically important hilltop 4 kilometers west of the town. Even so, the Syrian Observatory for Human Rights believes that ISIS now controls about half of Kobani, and Turkish and Western leaders have warned that the city is still likely to fall. The BBC has more on the shape of the battle over the last 24 hours. Yesterday, US Secretary of State John Kerry remarked that while the siege of Kobani is a “tragedy,” one town cannot “define the strategy for the coalition”---which must first focus on Iraq. Al Jazeera reports on the Secretary’s comments. Apropos of the coalition’s strategy, President Barack Obama will meet with the military leaders of 20 countries, including Turkey and Saudi Arabia, today at Andrews Air Force Base. Reuters reports on the meeting, where the president will “discuss the vision, the challenges, and the way ahead” in the battle against the Islamic State. The New York Times provides heartbreaking coverage of the Kurdish refugee camps in Suruc, Turkey, where thousands from Kobani have fled. As the world has focused on Kobani, ISIS has made dramatic advances in Iraq’s Anbar province, where the BBC reports that as many as 180,000 people have fled the militant group’s advance. Anbar is a strategically significant province, and ISIS control would allow the group to establish a supply line from its territory in Syria, enabling sustained attacks on Baghdad. The Islamic State captured the towns of Hit and Kubaisa last week, and stand poised to take Haditha and potentially Ramadi. Bloomberg writes that ISIS militants overran a military base to the west of Baghdad yesterday, seizing one of the last government outposts remaining in the area. The deputy head of Anbar’s provincial council estimates that ISIS now controls 80 percent of Anbar. As the situation in Anbar deteriorates, in Bloomberg, Terry Atlas and Zaid Sabah outline a number of the challenges the U.S. and Iraqi governments face in establishing a capable Iraqi National Guard to push back against the Islamic State. Prime Minister Haidar al Abadi is scheduled to send legislation to the Iraqi parliament that would authorize the plan today. Finally, the Huffington Post covers a report from the Global Research in International Affairs Center that has provoked fears ISIS may have chemical weapons. In Yemen, Houthi Shiite rebels launched a “lightning offensive” against the Red Sea port of Hudeida, capturing the strategic center on Tuesday. The Daily Star reports that they met with “little resistance” in the city, which is located 226 kilometers west of Sanaa, and took control of its airport and seaport. According to the BBC, Iranian, US, and EU representatives are set to resume talks in Vienna today just weeks before the November 24th deadline for a final deal on the country’s controversial nuclear program. While world powers agreed to an interim deal last year that gave Iran some respite from crippling sanctions, the current round of negotiations has been deadlocked over “the extent of uranium enrichment Iran would be allowed” as well as “the timetable for sanctions to be lifted.” Since last Friday, Egyptian government forces have arrested at least 91 students, all in an effort to crush student activism and blunt the momentum of incipient protests against the Sisi regime. The New York Times has more on the evolving situation. Justin Gengler is out with a new analysis into Bahrain’s changing electoral politics, and what it means for representation in the small Gulf nation. Yesterday, Westminster overwhelmingly passed a largely symbolic motion urging the UK government to recognize Palestinian statehood. The BBC reports that the lower House of Commons voted 274 to 12 on the Labor-backed motion, which “will not decide government policy.” Israel’s government responded angrily to the move, arguing that “the vote could undermine the chances of peace.” In Jerusalem, Yediot Achronot reports that Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has been conducting feverish negotiations with Likud bigwigs in an attempt to consolidate his hold over Israel’s leading political party. According to the article, Netanyahu sees a rare opportunity to increase his lead over rival Likudniks with the surprise retirement of Interior Minister Gideon Sa’ar, who was widely considered to be a rising star in Israel’s political scene and a potential challenger to Netanyahu’s dominance. In a visit to the Gaza Strip on Tuesday, UN Secretary General Ban Ki-Moon described the destruction there as “beyond description.” Yediot Achronot reports that the Secretary General will tour UNRWA facilities during his visit. Brookings Doha Center scholars Sultan Barakat and Omar Shaban are out with a new piece entitled, “The Case for a Collaborative Council for Gaza’s Reconstruction.” Within it, they explain how to ensure a lasting rehabilitation of the embattled territory. Today, the BBC updated its profile of Tunisia, one of the few bright spots in the Middle East. Check it out here. Right next door in Libya, Reuters reports that a militant group that seized the capital of Tripoli in August has also taken control of websites belonging to the Libyan government and several oil companies. This new power grab by the Misrata-based organization only deepens doubts as to who is really controlling the North African nation. It appears the Pakistani Taliban is fracturing: the Wall Street Journal reports that in response to the growth of ISIS, six senior members of the Pakistani organization, including its spokesman, Shahidullah Shahid, vowed to support the ambitions of ISIS spiritual leader Abu Bakr al Baghdadi. Shahid clarified that the men did not represent the Pakistani Taliban, “which remains in allegiance to Mullah Mohammad Omar, the spiritual leader of the Afghan Taliban.” In Hong Kong, hundreds of police officers tore down barricades on Tuesday using “sledgehammers and chainsaws.” Reuters writes that for the first time in two weeks, traffic flowed freely on Queensway Road, a major artery in the city’s financial and governmental center. Other protest centers in the Admiralty and Mong Kok districts “remained intact,” and pro-democracy demonstrators vowed to rebuild the obstructions once police left. In the New York Times’ Op-Ed section, Shiu Sin-Por, head of the Central Policy Unit of Hong Kong’s local government, argues that the current conflict “stems from the unwillingness on the part of the Pan Democrats to accept the constitutional powers of the People’s Republic of China.” The Times also reports that a court in the PRC sentenced 12 people to death on Monday for their roles in Xinjiang violence this summer that killed nearly 100 people. While the ethnicities of those convicted were not made clear, their names “suggested they were Uighur.” Over 400 people have died over the past year in Xinjiang amid continuing interethnic strife. The speculation surrounding North Korean leader Kim Jong-un has died down for now; Mr. Kim’s month-long absence was punctured yesterday when he visited a housing project and was seen “walking with a cane.” The Times has more. Just south of the demilitarized zone, Voice of America reports that South Korean President Park Geun-hye is “open” to dialogue with Pyongyang. Her statements in the capital of Seoul come “despite recent military provocations by the North.” Continuing yesterday’s coverage of Chinese Premier Li Keqiang’s visit to Moscow, Reuters writes that Moscow and Beijing “signed energy, trade and finance agreements” yesterday in an attempt to help the Kremlin “weather Western sanctions.” The two governments signed 38 deals, which “allow for deeper cooperation on energy and a currency swap worth 150 billion yuan ($25 billion) intended partly to reduce the sway of the US dollar.” The Kremlin has moved to dissolve the Russian Memorial Society, the Washington Post reports. Memorial is “one of Russia’s oldest human rights organizations,” and was founded towards the end of the Soviet Union in an attempt to “document abuses committed against critics of the reigning Communist leadership.” According to Michael Birnbaum, “the move against Memorial...comes as echoes of Soviet life have reentered Russian society.” Similarly, Michael Khodarkovsky argues in the New York Times’ Op-Ed section that in an “attempt to preserve their power, Russia’s ruling class” is turning to “Slavic nationalism, isolationism and anti-Westernism.” The Times also reports that Russian hackers exploited “a bug in Microsoft Windows to spy on several Western governments, NATO and the Ukrainian government.” The targets also included “European energy and telecommunications companies and an undisclosed academic organization in the United States.” Still, Kateryna Choursina of Bloomberg writes that Russian troops continue to pull back from the border with Ukraine, a move which has been welcomed as “positive” by the Ukrainian government. RIA reports that in Kiev, Verkhovna Rada speaker Oleksandr Turchynov has signed off on a law that ensures the “special status of parts of the Donetsk and Luhansk regions,” which now awaits the signature of President Petro Poroshenko. This is not to say the instability is over: Pavel Gubarev, “a top rebel politician in eastern Ukraine,” is unconscious after gunmen attacked his car and caused it to crash. BBC divulges that his car was attacked in Donetsk, “en route from Rostov-on-Don in Russia.” Farther west in Bosnia and Herzegovina, Dan Bilefsky characterizes the recent elections there as only reinforcing “long-standing ethnic divisions.” The country is still recovering “nearly 20 years after a brutal war.” Speaking of elections in Central Europe, the Times also reports that local and municipal elections in Hungary on Sunday have consolidated the power of Prime Minister Viktor Orban. In the face of unremitting opposition from Madrid, Catalonia’s leader said Tuesday that “the Spanish region would go ahead next month with a nonbinding vote on secession.” A Pentagon report released on Monday says that climate change could pose serious national security risks for the US. The “climate change adaptation roadmap,” which was provided by the Washington Post, warns that “drastic weather, rising seas and changing storm patterns could become ‘threat multipliers’ for the United States, vastly complicating security challenges faced by American forces.” According to the International Energy Agency, “demand for oil in 2015 will grow far slower than previously forecast.” Reuters reports that the agency cut its 2015 estimate for oil demand growth “by 300,00 barrels per day from its previous forecast.” The mortality rate of the recent Ebola outbreak is higher than previously thought: 70% instead of 50%. The New York Times has more. Finally, Benjamin Weiser explains why time and time again, captured terrorists “break the mold” and talk willingly and proudly with investigators. Email the Roundup Team noteworthy law and security-related articles to include, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook for additional commentary on these issues. Sign up to receive Lawfare in your inbox. Visit our Events Calendar to learn about upcoming national security events, and check out relevant job openings on our Job Board.