Today’s Headlines and Commentary

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The U.S. is estimating that Russia has amassed up to 190,000 military personnel “in and near Ukraine” according to a statement by the U.S. mission to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe. The statement—delivered by Amb. Michael Carpenter, ambassador to the Organization for Security and Cooperation in Europe ​​—outlines U.S. awareness of Russian strategies for justification of an invasion. It reads, “We are aware that Russia is intent on creating a pretext to justify an invasion into Ukraine. We have reports from multiple sources that provide detail on Russia’s efforts to fabricate supposed ‘Ukrainian provocations’ and shape a public narrative that would justify a Russian invasion.” The statement also points out an “uptick” in Russia’s cyber attacks against Ukraine’s defense and banking sectors. 

The U.S. gained intelligence that the military pullback in Ukraine announced by Russia was a “deliberate ruse” to deceive the United States and other Western powers, reports the Washington Post. Despite Russia’s claims that it decreased its military presence, Russian forces increased along the Ukrainian border. President Biden told reporters that the threat of Russian invasion remains “very high” and that “every indication we have is they’re prepared to go into Ukraine, attack Ukraine.” Biden added that he expects the invasion to happen within the “next several days.”

Vice President Kamala Harris will lead the American delegation to the Munich Security Conference, writes CNN. The meeting comes amid rising international tensions surrounding increased Russian military aggression toward Ukraine. Harris is expected to be a “leading voice” at the conference for NATO allies looking to stand in support of Ukraine’s territorial integrity and sovereignty. A former national security advisor to Harris told reporters that the vice president has “a critically important role to play, especially at this time of crisis for the world."

The National Archives and Records Administration confirmed that it found classified documents among records improperly removed from the White House by former President Donald Trump, according to the New York Times. In a letter addressed to the House Oversight committee, the National Archives reported that the agency “has identified items marked as classified national security information within the boxes.”

A judge ruled that New York Attorney General Letitia James can question Donald Trump, Donald Trump Jr. and Ivanka Trump under oath as part of a civil inquiry into his business practices, reports the New York Times. In addition to James’s inquiry, the Manhattan district attorney is pursuing a criminal investigation into whether Trump Sr. used his financial statements to improperly inflate the value of his assets to receive favorable loans. Lawyers for the Trumps attempted to block James from interviewing the family by arguing that the Democratic attorney general is politically biased against Trump. The lawyers argued that James was planning to inappropriately use the information gained in her civil inquiry to assist the Manhattan district attorney’s criminal investigation. 

Police in Ottawa, Canada, began arresting protest organizers responsible for facilitating the disruptive “Freedom Convoy” that shut down two border crossings in protest of coronavirus restrictions, according to the New York Times. Among those arrested is Tamara Lich, who is reportedly the most visible leader of the trucker convoy. Ottawa police report that the arrests are imminent and that they are committed to ending the ongoing “unlawful occupation” of Ottawa’s streets. A spokesperson for the convoy called the arrests “absolutely baseless and a disgrace to any liberal democracy, although not a surprise.”

The Senate passed a bill to avoid a government shutdown just ahead of a Friday night deadline, writes the Hill. The bill passed in a vote of 65-27 and funds the government through March 11, 2022, at current levels. The bill passed the House and Senate within two weeks, and is expected to be signed by the president in the coming days. The continuing resolution gives lawmakers just three more weeks to continue negotiating a deal to fund the government through the end of September, 2022. 

A Texas grand jury indicted 19 Austin police officers on charges of aggravated assault with a deadly weapon for their actions during 2020 Black Lives Matter protests following the killing of George Floyd, reports the Associated Press. The Travis County district attorney spoke to reporters about the grand jury investigation, saying “Our community is safer when our community trusts enforcement. When it believes law enforcement follows that law and protects the people who live here …. There cannot be trust if there is no accountability when law enforcement breaks the law.” Prosecutors have not yet identified any of the officers facing charges. 

An Indian court sentenced 38 people to death for their involvement in 2008 bomb blasts that killed over 50 in Gujarat, according to the Associated Press. The decision marks the first time in Indian history that so many accused of a crime in a single case received the death sentence. The 2008 bombings were reportedly executed by a militant Islamic group known as the Harkat-ul-Jihad-al-Islami in cooperation with the Indian Mujahideen, a radicalized faction of the banned Students Islamic Movement of India. The sentences of the 38 individuals await confirmation by a higher court. 

ICYMI: Yesterday on Lawfare

Jen Patja Howell shared an episode of the Lawfare Podcast in which Evelyn Douek and Quinta Jurecic spoke with Brandon Silverman about transparency from social media platforms and why it matters. They also discussed his work with the Congress and other regulators to advise on what legislation ensuring more openness from platforms would look like—and why it’s so hard to draft regulation that works.

Steve Stransky and Kemba Walden explored where congress is on cyber reporting requirements. 

Anna Lvovsky discussed if judges should defer to police expertise in criminal cases. 

David Preiss shared an episode of the Chatter Podcast in which he sat down with John Avlon to discuss Abraham Lincoln’s underappreciated plan for post-Civil War peace–and how we can apply its lessons today.

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