Today's Headlines and Commentary

The New York Times is reporting that American officials have concluded North Korea was “centrally involved” in the hacking attacks on Sony Pictures. Privately, Officials also note that the White House has not yet decided to accuse the North Korean government though, as it weighs what response it can credibly muster. Questions also remain over whether North Korean hackers were assisted by an insider at Sony with a depth of knowledge of the company’s computer and security systems. Wired carries an overview of the debate about who hacked Sony, suggesting that the evidence it was North Korea “is flimsy.” We await more information from the White House as to the evidence it is using for attribution. The news came after Sony Pictures decided to cancel “The Interview,” a far-fetched comedy about the assassination of Kim Jong-Un, which is believed to have prompted the attack from the North. Hackers had posted threats on the Sony computer system promising a “bitter fate” for those going to the movie and warning that the “world will be full of fear” if it was released. “Remember the 11th of September 2001,” they wrote. According to Nate Silver, killing “The Interview” could cost Sony $100 million. For the Council on Foreign Relations, Scott Snyder provides a top-notch analysis of “what Hollywood gets wrong about North Korea.” The Washington Post has more. News of the unexpected announcement that the United States and Cuba will normalize relations has now transitioned to commentary and investigation into how such a momentous event passed under the radar. If you missed the big news, McClatchy shares an overview of the changes, and exactly what all is included in the deal. Elsewhere, Politico outlines the 18 months of secret conversations and backchanneling that brought Obama and Castro together. If you’re wondering, the U.S. military base at Guantanamo Bay is not part of the US-Cuban bargain. Carol Rosenberg of the Miami Herald reports that there won’t be a change in the status quo. It does lead to an interesting question though: Will Cuba now cash those 55 years’ worth of rent checks? Vice News explores the history of the US military base in Cuba. The fallout from President Obama’s announcement has triggered a sharp partisan response, with Congressional Republicans promising to block changes to Cuba policy. McClatchy notes that “among the possible strategies: They could refuse to end the economic embargo of Cuba, block funding for a new embassy, or stall or defeat an ambassadorial nomination.” Leading the charge is Senator Marco Rubio (R-FL), who writes that “Mr. Obama’s new Cuba policy is a victory for oppressive governments the world over and will have real, negative consequences for the American people.” In the Atlantic, Jeffrey Goldberg disagrees, stating that “Obama and his team knew something that many previous administrations before them also knew: U.S. policy toward Cuba was self-defeating.” A Reuters exclusive claims that Washington’s coalition allies are increasingly absent from the air war above Syria. In December, nearly 97 percent of strikes were carried out by the United States alone. As there are fewer and fewer easy-to-hit targets, more and more of the burden falls on the United States and its precision-guided munitions. Over the last three days, the US and allied warplanes have conducted 61 strikes against the Islamic State in Iraq, with 45 strikes supporting Kurdish peshmerga troops as they fight to retake Sinjar and Zumar. The strikes were intended to clear a path and pin down ISIS militants before Kurdish forces launched their operation. According to Reuters, there are initial signs of success, with Kurdish forces reclaiming at least 8 sub-districts in the Zumar area. In Syria, a newly uncovered mass grave may hold the bodies of more than 230 people from the Shyayat tribe of Deir al-Zour Province. They are believed to have been killed by the Islamic State in retribution for the tribe’s efforts to fight the group. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights notes that with their deaths, more than 900 Shuayat have been killed by ISIS. As part of the battle to limit the flow of oil to the government of Bashar al Assad, the United States has imposed new penalties on five people and six companies that had been operating in violation of American sanctions. The companies were providing fuel and oil to the Syrian regime and are based in Syria, the UAE, Switzerland, and the Netherlands. The New York Times has more on the sanctions. Two days after the Pakistani Taliban attacked a school in Peshawar, killing at least 141 people, an Anti-Terrorism Court in Islamabad has approved bail of roughly $8,000 for Zakiur Rehman Lakhvi, the man charged with planning the 2008 Mumbai attacks. The decision provoked outrage from India, with the Indian Foreign Ministry saying that it was “a reassurance to terrorists who perpetuate heinous crimes.” Even so, Pakistan has asked for Afghan help to fight the Taliban, asking for help in capturing Mullah Fazlullah, the Pakistani Taliban’s leader, who is believed to be hiding in north eastern Afghanistan. However, yesterday, the head of the Afghanistan’s chief intelligence agency said that the withdrawal of foreign troops has left an intelligence-gathering vacuum, leaving the region vulnerable to even more attacks. The New York Times reports that the onslaught of economic pressure and instability in Russia may push Russian President Vladimir Putin into a peace deal with Ukraine. Multiple times over the last few days, Putin has spoken with his Ukrainian, German, and French colleagues. The Wall Street Journal writes that Mr. Putin’s miscalculations over the bite of Western sanctions and Europe’s determination to see him pay have restricted his options and made a recession next year “all but inevitable.” Boko Haram militants killed 32 people and kidnapped dozens of others during a brutal attack on Thursday. In a sign of the difficulties Nigeria has faced in fighting the Islamic extremist group, a court martial sentenced 54 Nigerian soldiers to death for refusing to deploy for an operation against Boko Haram. The troops claimed they did not have proper equipment or weapons for the operation. The United States embassy in Manila has refused to hand over a US Marine charged in the killing of a transgendered Filipino. While the embassy says its position is in accord with the bilateral forces agreement, the decision is likely to spark anti-American protests, according to the Guardian. In the Daily Beast, Tim Mak says that “prosecutors have no idea when 9/11 mastermind’s trial will start” as legal proceedings drag on, and on, and on. In the Wall Street Journal, Michael B. Mukasey, former US Attorney General, argues that CIA interrogators followed the law. Parting Shot: A Texas City plumber’s truck has wound up in the Syrian war. The plumber found out after receiving calls and threats after a photo of his truck, now mounted with an anti-aircraft gun, was featured in jihadi propaganda on Twitter.

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

In an early edition of the Foreign Policy Essay, Frederic Wehrey writes of the counterterrorism dilemmas presented by the Islamic State in Libya. Ben Wittes, who is in Israel, shares his thoughts on sipping coffee along the border with al Qaeda. This week’s Steptoe Cyberlaw Podcast includes an interview with Joanne McNabb, the Director of Privacy Education and Policy for the California Attorney General’s Office. Email the Roundup Team noteworthy law and security-related articles to include, and follow us on Twitter and Facebook for additional commentary on these issues. Sign up to receive Lawfare in your inbox. Visit our Events Calendar to learn about upcoming national security events, and check out relevant job openings on our Job Board.