Today's Headlines and Commentary

Top Democratic Senator Chuck Schumer (D-NY) dealt a blow to the Obama administration yesterday, posting a 1,600-word statement on the website Medium in which he revealed that “After deep study, careful thought and considerable soul-searching, I have decided I must oppose the [nuclear] agreement and will vote yes on a motion of disapproval.” His key concern is that Iran will still have the ability to build a bomb 10 years after the deal goes through. Obama’s allies, particularly Secretary of State John Kerry, expressed disapproval of Schumer’s stance following his statement, claiming that rejecting the deal “will lead people to put pressure on military action since the United States would have walked away from the diplomatic solution.” Some top U.S. officials, including former senior adviser Dan Pfeiffer, suggest the New York senator's decision could make it difficult for him to lead Democrats in the Senate. The Hill has the story.

Meanwhile, President Barack Obama emphasized his comparison of Republicans and Iranian hardliners who oppose the deal. Most of the opposition within in Iran, Obama claimed, comes from the “Revolutionary Guard, the Quds Force, hardliners who are implacably opposed to any cooperation with the international community.” The Hill tells us that he compared congressional Republicans opposed to the deal with Iranian hardliners who “chant death to America,” saying they are “making a common cause with the Republican caucus.”

Coming from the other side of the pond, P5+1 nations are pressing Senate Democrats to support the deal, saying that, “The prospect of the rejection of a deal makes us nervous.” In a meeting on Tuesday on Capitol Hill, envoys for some of America’s closest allies, including Philipp Ackermann, the acting German ambassador to the United States, maintained that “It would be a nightmare for every European country if this is rejected.” With the recent addition of Senator Kirsten Gillibrand (D-N.Y.), 11 senators now publicly support the deal; The White House needs 23 more to maintain its veto power, says Foreign Policy.

Speaking of nuclear programs, Al Jazeera explains why the U.S. nuclear budget is growing while the stockpile of warheads shrinks. America is on track to reduce its active strategic arsenal (warheads ready to launch) to 1,605, the lowest number since Dwight Eisenhower was president by February 2018. However, President Obama has announced plans to “modernize” the entire nuclear arsenal over the next 30 years which could cost upwards of $1 trillion.

In Syria, the Wall Street Journal indicates that the Pentagon cannot account for some of the 54 rebel fighters who went through its training program to fight ISIS. The Department of Defense has been unable to verify the status of the Syrian recruits after the group’s compound was attacked last week by Syria’s al Qaeda affiliate, the Nusra Front. The Journal reports that group “scattered” following the attack, and that some were captured while others are “status unknown” and may resurface later.

The American-aligned rebel unit, known as Division 30, reportedly declared their refusal to fight the Nusra Front. Charles Lister, a visiting fellow at the Brookings Doha Center, proclaimed that “With all the immense military power the US has at its disposal, the start to the mission is nothing short of an embarrassment and if it has any hope of succeeding, it needs to show results fast.” In a statement posted on its Facebook page, Division 30 vowed that it would not fight any of the Syrian rebel factions, including the Nusra Front. The statement went on to say that “Our goal is clear – [ISIS] followed by the regime.”

Earlier today ISIS kidnapped at least 230 people, including 60 Christians who were taken from a church, in the central Syrian province of Homs hours after it fell to the Islamic State. Christian leaders confirmed that ISIS is holding about 250 Christians and appealed for emergency humanitarian aid, medical supplies and financial support to assist the Christian refugees who have fled ISIS. Amnesty International acknowledged “that Christians and ‘collaborators’ are a target of IS. They are at the highest risk, either for some kind of summary justice or, for Christians in particular, some kind of high ransom demand or exchange.” The Guardian and Al Jazeera have the details.

Yesterday, Syrian government sent a high-level delegation to Oman, the Gulf state often helps broker negotiations in regional conflicts. The visit, led by Syria’s Foreign Minister, Walid al-Moallem, was arranged at the invitation of the Omanis. The Foreign Minister’s trip, the first since the Syrian war began four years ago, raises “new speculation that diplomatic energy is intensifying to seek a way to end the war,” the New York Times suggests.

The United Nations Security Council gave the green light to establish a Joint Investigative Mechanism to identify those responsible for the use of chemical weapons in Syria. Foreign Policy explains that the unanimous vote comes “after the United States and its European allies spent months working to persuade Russia to soften its long-standing diplomatic support for Syrian strongman Bashar al-Assad.” The Council has threatened consequences for the attack. It is important to note that the measure will be the first U.N. resolution that creates a mandate to attribute responsibility for any event in the Syrian war.

With refugees streaming out of Syria, along with northern Africa, Iran, and Iraq, Europe is facing a record number of migrants entering the region in 2015. France24 reports that at least 224,000 people have crossed the Mediterranean into Europe, with even more arriving through Turkey. The Council on Foreign Relations provides a handy review of Europe’s looming migration crisis.

It’s the one-year anniversary of U.S. military operations in Iraq against ISIS, and Military Times reminds us that Congress has yet to pass any new authorization for the use of force. Meanwhile, speaking of those military operations, the Journal reports that the United States has transferred Umm Sayyaf to Iraqi Kurdish custody, reportedly with the blessing of the Iraqi government. Umm Sayyaf had been held by U.S. forces for three months for interrogation. Defense One considers the implications of the transfer for the ongoing war.

Over at Foreign Policy, Stuart E. Eizenstat and Sebnem Kalemli-Ozcan argue that Turkey’s new involvement in the fight against ISIS represents an opportunity for the United States and the European Union to “comprehensively reinvigorate a relationship that has fallen into disrepair.” A renewed Turkish alliance with the U.S. and E.U., they say, would push Turkey toward domestic political and economic reforms.

The United Nations has announced the resumption of peace talks aimed at calming the chaos in Libya. The talks will begin again on August 10, with the hope of reaching a political agreement between Libya’s two competing parliaments.

Gunmen with a suspected Islamist extremist affiliation attacked two hotels in central Mali this morning, killing at least three and possibly taking hostages. Reuters writes that the hotel was currently in use by U.N. peacekeepers. As of now, a gun battle is currently ongoing between the attackers and the Malian military.

Afghan officials have launched a major military operation against “insurgents” in the province of Kabul, TOLO News reports. The general commanding the operation stated that the insurgents targeted are being supported by the Pakistani ISI. In the city of Kabul itself, a suicide truck bomb killed eight people and injured anywhere from 100 to 400 others. The attack is the first in the city since the death of the Taliban leader Mullah Omar was confirmed recently.

An air strike likely from a U.S. drone has killed four militants in northwest Pakistan, the AP writes. According to Pakistani officials, the militants were members of the extremist Haqqani network.

The Times examines the confusion surrounding Mullah Omar’s death. “How the insurgent leader’s death remained a secret for so long,” the story says, “is a striking phenomenon that illuminates some of the murkier dynamics of the war in Afghanistan.” While the Taliban sought to maintain control over its ranks by propping up the the fantasy that Omar was still alive, routinely sending out dispatches in Omar’s name, security officials across the world were strangely willing to accept the Taliban’s false front---perhaps out of a combination of strategy and genuine lack of knowledge.

The Times also provides an op-ed by Anatol Lieven and Rudra Chaudhuri, who argue that the United States and its regional allies should seize the opportunity of Omar’s death to broker a deal with moderate elements of the Taliban. Ideally, the deal could result in collaboration between moderate Taliban members and the Afghan government---and a regional alliance to stamp out ISIS.

A secularist Bangladeshi blogger has been hacked to death in Dhaka, the fourth such killing in less than six months. Niloy Chatterjee had been a critic of religious extremism and a participant in a movement demanding the death penalty for extremists accused of war crimes in Bangladesh’s 1971 war of independence. The BBC tells us that the Bangladeshi government has been criticized for its “indifference” toward the recent killings of secularist bloggers.

In Kyiv, the pro-Western government has swapped out corrupt career police officers with a different breed of cop: “people with no law-enforcement experience,” as the Journal puts it. The program aims at revitalizing Ukrainians’ faith in the new government and signaling a change in the old, corrupt (read: Russian) way of doing things.

The Daily Beast reports on a disagreement between the Pentagon and the Obama administration over the threat posed by Russia to the United States. While the top military brass has continually referred to Russia as a serious---perhaps “existential”---threat, the White House would prefer to stay away from the “slippery slope” toward conflict with the Kremlin. Yet U.S. officials are now saying that Russian hackers are the chief suspects in a recent cyberattack on the unclassified email network of the U.S. military’s joint staff. The Guardian has the story.

Last night’s GOP presidential debate saw a heated exchange between Governor Chris Christie and Senator Rand Paul on the matter of cybersecurity and government surveillance of electronic communications. Wired notes the surprising importance of cyber matters during the debate and ponders whether “cyber security is the new national security.”

In Japan, a court has ruled against a man seeking compensation for bitcoins lost during the collapse of the MtGox currency exchange last year. According to the BBC (and interestingly enough for intellectual property mavens), the court held that the man did not technically own the bitcoins under Japanese law, which only allows for ownership of tangible objects. The man lost roughly 31 million yen or $250,000 worth of bitcoin in the collapse.

This morning, a jury heard closing arguments in the terrorism trial of a Russian veteran charged with leading Taliban forces against U.S. troops in 2009. The AP writes that the case, which is being prosecuted in criminal court, is an example of President Obama’s efforts to prosecute terrorism charges under criminal rather than military law.

Parting shot: Pyongyang is creating a new time zone, moving North Korean clocks back by thirty minutes to commemorate its post-World War II liberation from Japanese rule. Or, as the Times puts it, “North Korea, which is already out of sync with much of the world, announced that it will take that a step further.”

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Cody alerted us to a lawsuit filed by victims of Iranian-sponsored terrorism, requesting that a New York district court enjoining the Obama administration to delay its unfreezing of Iranian assets.

Gabriel Schoenfeld reviewed Michael Morrell’s memoir of his time in the CIA, The Great War of Our Time: The CIA's Fight Against Terrorism--From al Qa'ida to ISIS.

Ben posted this week’s Rational Security podcast, guest-starring Lawfare's own Dan Byman.

Cody also announced the release of a new issue of the journal Perspectives on Terrorism, which focuses on the rise of ISIS.

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