Today's Headlines and Commentary

We begin today with southeastern Turkey, where after two years of relative calm, violence has returned and “the tension is palpable” as conflict intensifies between the Kurds and the Turkish state. The latest clashes follow a suicide bombing that killed 32 Kurdish and Turkish activists in Suruç last month, but reflect long-running political conflicts that have simmered for years. Just two months ago, Turkish Kurds celebrated the election of a pro-Kurdish leftist group to parliament, granting the group unprecedented political representation. Even so, renewed airstrikes against PKK militants has undercut that enthusiasm, leaving many concerned that Turkish Prime Minister Tayyip Erdogan is using the opportunity to boost his own poll numbers before calling for early elections. The complicated politics are just one factor muddling the ongoing campaign against ISIS. The Guardian has the details.

Fox News reveals that the United States had barely enough warning to make sure its forces were out of the way when Turkey struck Kurdish positions in the northern mountains of Iraq last month. According to a U.S. military official, "A Turkish officer came into the [Combined Air and Space Operations Center], and announced that the strike would begin in 10 minutes and he needed all allied jets flying above Iraq to move south of Mosul immediately. We were outraged."

Yesterday also marked the 95th anniversary of the Treaty of Sèvres, the consequences of which can still be seen today, as Foreign Policy explains. Although the borders it created only lasted a year before the Turkish War of Independence and the Treaty of Lausanne ultimately replaced them, by seeing how and why the first European plan for dividing up the Ottoman Empire failed we can better understand the region’s present-day borders, as well as the contradictions of contemporary Kurdish nationalism and the political challenges facing modern Turkey.

Stars and Stripes reports that the United States has asked the Turkish government for approval to use a second air base in the country to launch air operations against the Islamic State. Per the Stars and Stripes piece, Navy Captain Jeff Davis says the base would be used to conduct personnel recovery operations. It is unclear whether the United States would use the second base to launch offensive strikes against the Islamic State. Last month Ankara agreed to open Incirlik Air Base to U.S. drones and fighter jets as part of an agreement with Washington.

The Syrian affiliate of al Qaeda, al Nusra Front, has announced its withdrawal from the front line against the Islamic State in Syria. In a statement, which Aaron Zelin has translated for Lawfare, the group claims it disagrees with plans by Turkey and the United States to clear the extremists from an area along the Turkish border because the plan was intended primarily to protect “Turkish national security” and not to advance the Syrian rebel cause. The announcement, Foreign Policy notes, is “the latest in a series of developments in Syria’s north and northwest that have scrambled the balance of power there, as Kurdish forces have expanded their control at the expense of the Islamic State.” According to Syrian activists in the area, other rebel groups have taken up al Nusra Front’s vacated positions to prevent an advance by Islamic State forces.

Even so, Reuters reports that Islamic State militants launched a new offensive north of Aleppo yesterday, seizing territory in the areas precisely marked off for the new “ISIS-free zone.” ISIS suicide attackers also detonated four car bombs overnight. A local rebel commander called the assault the most fierce Islamic State attack in the area in several months.

Yet, ISIS isn’t just advancing in the north; slowly, but surely it is making its way closer towards traditional corridors of political and military power bordering Lebanon and further to the south of Jordan. In the Daily Beast, Hassan Hassan and Michael Weiss explain how the areas in the south of Syria, which have for so long “managed to push back [ISIS’s] incessant attacks,” are facing renewed pressure following the fall of al Qaryatain. The latter city sits fewer than 70 kilometers from Homs.

Yesterday, a Syrian state news agency reported that Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s cousin was arrested following the killing a military officer in a road-rage incident. The arrest comes at a bad time for the Assad regime, which, the Post tells us, is weathering “mounting speculation that Bashar al-Assad’s grip on power is slipping” after significant losses of territory to rebel forces.

In what the Times describes as a “rare show of unity,” the Iraqi parliament has voted unanimously to approve Prime Minister Haider al Abadi’s sweeping government reform plan. Developed in response to mounting protests against government inefficiency and corruption, the ambitious proposal would rework Iraqi government structures which have existed for about a decade. The plan also includes a call for anti-corruption reforms---which seems to have already led to the resignation of one of Iraq’s three Deputy Prime Ministers, who will soon be investigated for corruption.

ISIS claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing in the southern Iraqi city of Baquba, which killed 30 people and wounded 40 others on Monday night. CNN writes that another bombing targeted the area an hour later, killing four others---though it remains unclear whether ISIS was responsible for this as well.

Adding to a series of recent victories, Saudi-backed troops in Yemen seized a town about 60 miles close to the rebel-held capital of Sanaa. The AFP tells us that the counteroffensive may put pro-government forces close to capturing the city of Taiz, southwest of Sanaa, which would be a major strategic victory against the Houthi rebels.

Yet international humanitarian organizations reiterated their concerns on Yemen’s deepening crisis. Representatives from the United Nations and the International Committee of the Red Cross pointed to the severe lack of food and medical care across the country as fighting goes on. Reuters has more.

Reuters reports that the European Union has approved 2.4 billion euros in aid to address the surging European migration crisis. Migrants from North Africa and the Middle East, including refugees fleeing crisis in Syria and Iraq, have increasingly put strain on European governments.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani had harsh words for Pakistan at a news conference yesterday, blaming Pakistani authorities for a recent string of Taliban-backed terror attacks that have hit Afghanistan. According to the Journal, President Ghani stated that Pakistan has failed to adequately prevent Taliban militants from planning terror attacks from across the border. In response, the Pakistani embassy in Kabul released a statement condemning the attacks and declaring that “Pakistan and Afghanistan are brotherly and neighboring countries and enjoy close and cooperative relations.”

Meanwhile, officials from Afghanistan’s Nangarhar province report that U.S. drone strikes have killed nearly 250 Taliban and ISIS fighters over the past month. The majority of the dead were members of ISIS, TOLO News explains, and the official word is that there have been no civilian casualties. Nangarhar has become a flashpoint of Taliban-ISIS conflict after ISIS’s seizure of territory in the region.

Senator John McCain (R-AZ) is bullish on the prospects of the Senate’s voting to disapprove of the nuclear deal with Iran, the Hill writes---though the senator seems far more uncertain as to whether the deal’s detractors will be able to muster enough support to vote down a presidential veto. On that note, the Post has a helpful round-up of the whip count on the deal, which they promise to update regularly as the time nears for a vote.

The Post also reports that final hearings have been held in the case of Jason Rezaian, the Washington Post journalist detained by Iran. The court may decide Rezaian’s case within a week.

The Ukrainian military accused pro-Russian separatists of staging a major attack on government troops near the port city of Mariupol, which is held by the Ukrainian government. Business Insider writes that the attack, which was the heaviest in six months, likely indicates the further decay of the increasingly fragile ceasefire agreement---though rebel forces have denied responsibility for the attack. The story also includes a helpful map of government- and rebel-held territory in eastern Ukraine, along with the military action that has taken place since the ceasefire was imposed in February.

The International Business Times brings us news of U.S. plans to fund training of Russian-speaking journalists in the Baltic region, in an effort to counter what the U.S. embassy in Lithuania termed “Russian propaganda and misinformation.” The program would involve Latvia, Lithuania, and Estonia, and would aim at developing “a mature, proactive 21st century media landscape” to provide an alternate perspective to nationalistic Russian news networks.

China has sharply devalued its domestic currency, the Renminbi, in response to an economic slowdown. The devaluation, the largest in almost two decades, runs the risk of ratcheting up tensions between China and the United States. The Times has the story.

NBC reported yesterday that China has had access to the emails of top U.S. officials since at least 2010, when the hacking was first detected. The NBC report is based on an NSA document obtained by the news network, which details the known extent of the security breach. According to an anonymous senior intelligence official, the hacking is still going on.

Politico brings us news of the ongoing hypersonic arms race between the United States, Russia, and China. The “futuristic” high-speed weapons would be able to attack a target “before a defender could even react." Some argue that a ban on the new technology would be wiser than further development. “We’re just doing it because maybe we can, and because others can too, and people are deluded that it represents some kind of major advance that we can exploit to keep the Chinese or Russian menace at bay,” said Mark Gubrud, a professor at the University of North Carolina.

Over at the Times, Zeynep Tufekci notes the serious security threat posed by “smart” objects connected to the Internet, arguing that the “Internet of Things” is seriously vulnerable to potentially catastrophic hacking. If you needed any more proof of that, Wired (which brought us last month’s piece on the remote hacking of a “smart” Jeep) reports on a discovery by security researchers that a Corvette’s brakes can be easily hacked.

The United States will file criminal charges against at least nine people involved in an insider trading scheme that used hackers to steal inside information on corporate deals. The Times tells us that the traders gave hackers a “shopping list” of the information they wanted stolen. Some of those involved were apparently not concerned about the possibility of being monitored: “I’m hacking prnewswire.com,” one of the defendants wrote in a 2012 online chat message.

The Washington Post examines the growing nuisance of “rogue drones” crowding U.S. airspace. While the FAA generally has banned the commercial use of the technology, certain drones used for recreational purposes are protected from regulation under a 2012 law. Yet amateur drone flights are increasingly becoming a problem, colliding with skyscrapers, endangering commercial flights and firefighting helicopters, and---worst of all---annoying the neighbors.

Yesterday, we learned from the Daily Beast that Defense Secretary Ashton Carter is dragging his feet on signing the release paperwork for 52 of the remaining 116 Guantanamo detainees. Today, the Post reports that—in a twist that will likely surprise very few Lawfare readers—Gitmo’s closure is complicated by the question of where legacy detainees would be held domestically. A federal prison in Thomson, Illinois and a naval brig in Charleston, South Carolina were both in consideration but now seem like dubious options. While the administration had originally intended to present the Senate with a plan to close the camp before August recess, the Hill informs us that the Pentagon now plans to bring the blueprint for closure before the Senate “sometime” after the end of recess.

Parting shot: For a cool $2,500, you can now be the proud owner of a drone that’s capable of hacking computers as it flies overhead. According to Defense One, the drone will be available to the public in just a few days---enough time to decide whether it’s worth making the investment in this terrifying new piece of technology.

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Kenneth M. Pollack argued that ending the Middle East’s multitude of civil wars is crucial to peace and stability in the region.

Staley examined ISIS’s alarming indoctrination of child soldiers.

Bobby questioned whether supporters of ISIS can be prosecuted for providing material support for al Qaeda.

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