Today's Headlines and Commentary

Another day, another ceasefire. Syrian pro-government forces and rebel groups have successfully agreed to a 48-hour truce in three Syrian towns, one held by rebels and two by the government. The ceasefire will allow civilians to be evacuated and food to be delivered in the besieged areas, which include the rebel stronghold of Zabadani. Notably, ceasefire negotiations were enabled by what Reuters describes as “unprecedented” mediation by Turkish and Iranian officials---Turkey having backed the Syrian rebels, and Iran having backed pro-government forces. Al Jazeera reports that the negotiations may point to a “new regional approach” to ending the conflict in Syria through diplomacy.

On that note, the New York Times examines the “burst of diplomatic activity” conducted by Russian, U.S., Iranian, and Saudi officials in the hopes of achieving peace in Syria. The conclusion of nuclear negotiations with Iran may have shifted the balance of international politics in favor of diplomatic cooperation between unlikely allies. Yet prospects for peace remain tentative: Russia and Iran say that the United States and Saudi Arabia are increasingly willing to negotiate with the Assad government, the United States and Saudi Arabia say that Russia and Iran are increasingly amenable to seeing President Assad go, and the presence of ISIS and the al Nusra Front remains a stubbornly complicating factor.

Continuing this diplomatic trend, Iranian Foreign Minister Javad Zarif arrived in Damascus today to meet with with President Bashar al Assad. The AP writes that the two are expected to discuss a possible proposal to end the conflict with Syria, which Iran hopes to present before the United Nations. Despite hopes of peace, however, Minister Zarif’s arrival in the Syrian capital was preceded by shelling and airstrikes conducted by both government and rebel forces, which killed at least three dozen people.

Another complicating factor: Turkey. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has declared that Turkey will fight the Kurdish PKK until “not one single terrorist remains within our borders,” the AFP reports. Turkey’s new anti-PKK campaign has created an additional snarl in the web of alliances in Syria, casting into doubt the previously strong U.S. relationship with Kurdish forces battling ISIS and Assad. Meanwhile, Turkish Prime Minister Ahmet Davutoglu called for a no-fly zone over Syria and criticized the UN Security Council’s failure to act decisively on the crisis. The BBC has the story.

If you’re confused by Turkey’s military campaign against both ISIS and the Kurds, both of whom are fighting the other---and you’re not the only one---the Times has a helpful explainer for you.

Defense One notes an interesting tidbit from Monday’s Times story on the strained relationship between Turkey, the United States, and the Kurds in Syria: Kurdish forces appear to be using Google Maps to coordinate with U.S. air support. Restrictions on the use of U.S. military satellite maps to non-NATO fighters have lead the U.S. and local militias to turn to Google to “fill the gap.”

According to USA Today, the Iraqi military may be close to retaking Ramadi from ISIS forces. The U.S.-led air campaign is operating in concert with Iraqi ground forces, including about 500 U.S.-trained fighters, in preparation for a “final assault” on the ISIS stronghold. Yet the Times reports that the United States may be coming up against the limits of an air campaign supplemented by inexperienced ground troops.

Yesterday evening, Republican presidential candidate Jeb Bush spoke at length on his foreign policy proposals for addressing the conflict with ISIS. Defense One tells us that, though Bush’s“did not differ dramatically from those advocated for or considered by the Obama administration,” he did call for arming Kurdish forces in Syria and embedding U.S. troops among Iraqi ground forces.

Members of an ISIS affiliate in Egypt posted an image purporting to show the decapitated body of a Croatian hostage, whom they had earlier threatened to kill if the Egyptian government failed to release female prisoners detained in an anti-Muslim Brotherhood crackdown. The Times writes that the death of Tomislav Salopek would mark the first time that the ISIS affiliate, known as Sinai Province, had killed a foreigner, and may signal a shift of focus away from attacks on Egyptian security officials.

The Taliban has issued a statement condemning another ISIS execution video, which appears to show the death by explosive of Afghan villagers associated with the Taliban. "This offence and other such brutal actions by a few irresponsible ignorant individuals under the guise of Islam and Muslims are intolerable," the statement declares.

The Long War Journal brings us news that the Taliban is now in control of Now Zad, a district in Afghanistan’s Helmand Province. The district was a flashpoint for conflict between the Taliban and U.K. and U.S. forces until Taliban fighters were successfully driven out in 2009.

NBC reports that a group of hackers claiming ISIS affiliation have posted what they claim to be the personal information of members of the U.S. government and military. Neither the information nor the identity of the group have been confirmed---so perhaps it’s worth remembering that the last time a hacker group claimed membership in ISIS, the responsible parties turned out to be Russian freelancers instead.

A couple in Mississippi has been arrested by federal authorities after planning to travel to Syria and join ISIS on their honeymoon. The two communicated their plans to undercover FBI agents through social media, CNN tells us. And Spain has arrested a man for selling pro-ISIS merchandise---some displaying silk-screened images of a hostage killed by ISIS last year---including sweatshirts, t-shirts, and baby clothes.

Though Congress has now departed for the August recess, the Hill writes that President Obama is continuing to lobby forcefully for the nuclear deal with Iran during his own vacation. On Tuesday, Secretary of State John Kerry pushed back against Senator Chuck Schumer’s (D-NY) rejection of the agreement, declaring that “there isn’t a ‘better deal’ to be gotten.” The Post informs us that, alongside Secretary Kerry’s remarks, over thirty retired military officials released a public letter in support of the deal.

Bloomberg follows up on reports of possible Iranian attempts to undercut IAEA inspection of a possible military nuclear site at Parchin. The Institute for Science and International Security had identified satellite images showing high activity around the site in advance of the IAEA’s arrival, but now analysts say that the pattern of traffic is nothing unusual and represents no cause for concern.

The UN is urging Libya’s dueling parliaments to reach a peace deal by the end of the month and to officially endorse an agreement by early September, VOA News reports. Meanwhile, Prime Minister Abdullah al Thinni of Libya’s internationally recognized parliament has offered to resign in response to sharp public criticism over the government’s failure to supply much-needed services.

Yesterday, a bombing killed roughly 50 people in northeastern Nigeria. Reuters writes that while no organization has yet taken responsibility, the bombing bears the hallmarks of Boko Haram attacks, which have increased in recent months.

Amnesty International has accused UN peacekeeper troops stationed in the Central African Republic of raping a young girl and, in an independent incident, killing a teenage boy and his father. As Al Jazeera reminds us, the UN mission in the CAR has also been placed under scrutiny for its failure to address accusations of child sexual abuse by French soldiers. The United Nations’ power to address these reports its limited, given the institution's relatively weak investigatory powers.

A report by the European Leadership Network suggests that Russia and NATO have both been conducting increasingly large-scale military exercises, making the possibility of war more likely. The report encourages both sides to “wind down the scale of their war games while starting work on a new treaty that would limit the sort of weaponry allowed along their borders.” The report examines two recent exercises on each side, showing that both NATO and Russia are “training with the other side’s capabilities and most likely war plans in mind.”

Meanwhile, Dutch investigators may have found clues of a Russian-made surface-to-air missile system in eastern Ukraine, in the area of the downing of Malaysia Airlines Flight 17. However, the Times clarifies that neither Ukrainian soldiers nor Russian-backed rebels have yet been formally accused. Investigators say that while it is too soon to draw any conclusions, in time that these parts could help determine what---and who---holds responsibility for the flight’s crash.

The Chinese Central Bank stepped in to prop up the yuan after the currency experienced sharp losses following its devaluation yesterday. The Wall Street Journal reports that China’s actions underscore the “tricky balancing act” the bank must maintain in order to prevent the yuan from “free-falling.’ China’s latest move is likely to intensify tensions with the United States, which largely feels that an undervalued yuan gives Chinese exporters an unfair advantage.

The BBC reveals that requests for Twitter users' personal information has more than doubled in the United Kingdom in 2015, according to Twitter’s latest report. Between January and July 2015, UK government agencies and the police made 299 requests for information between, up from 116 in the previous six months. UK law enforcement files the most requests of Twitter data of all European countries. Twitter complied with slightly over half of the requests.

Jason Leopold of Vice updates us on the "Google Search That Made the CIA Spy on the Senate"---referring, of course, to the extraordinary fallout from the CIA's intrusion into computer systems used by Democratic staffers for the Senate Intelligence Committee, during the latter's preparation of its groundbreaking report on CIA interrogation practices after 9/11.

Parting shot: Syrian refugees are flocking to the Greek island of Kos in the hope of escaping the violence ravaging their homeland. This series of photographs of Syrians arriving on Kos provides a wrenching window onto Europe’s migration crisis.

Correction: Yesterday's headlines mistakenly reported that the Treaty of Sèvres (1920) was replaced by the Sykes-Picot Treaty (1916). It was, of course, the Treaty of Lausanne (1923) that replaced Sèvres after the Turkish War of Independence. Thanks for the hat-tip from one historically-minded reader.

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Aaron Zelin provided a statement from Jabhat al Nusra on “Recent Events in Rural Northern Aleppo (The Turkish Intervention).”

Aaron also posted this week’s Jihadology Podcast with Thomas Hegghammer, on the Islamic State and its commitment to attacking the West.

Bruce Riedel asked that question that’s been on all our minds: where in the world is al Qaeda's leader, Ayman al Zawahiri?

Paul and Ben announced the winner of Lawfare’s Most Valuable Database to Hack Contest.

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