Today's Headlines and Commentary

At least 80 people were killed and hundreds more injured in the deadliest attack in Baghdad since Iraqi Prime Minister Haider al-Abadi took office one year ago. The Islamic State has claimed responsibility for the truck bomb, which exploded outside a bustling farmer’s market in a Shia neighborhood earlier today. The suicide bomber lured people to the truck by telling them he had cheap tomatoes to sell.

In recent weeks, the Sunni extremist group has intensified its attacks in the capital city, which until now has largely been quarantined from the chaos that has enveloped other areas of the north and west of the country, according to the Guardian. The latest attack emphasizes the growing challenges the government of Prime Minister al-Abadi faces in securing the capital. With the security situation devolving even further, the Washington Post takes a look at the deadliest attacks in Iraq since the withdrawal of U.S. troops on December 18, 2011.

Looking forward, U.S. Army General Ray Odierno, who is set to retire as the U.S. Army’s chief of staff on Friday, says he believes that Iraqi security forces may need more help: “if we find in the next several months we’re not making the progress … we should probably absolutely consider embedding some soldiers with them, see if that would make a difference...That doesn’t mean they would be fighting, but it maybe embedding them and moving with them. I think that’s an option we should present to the president when the time is right.”

Turkey’s aggressive airstrikes against Kurdish militants are raising concerns in Washington about Akara’s intentions, the Journal reports. In fact, Turkey’s military has yet to target ISIS since its announcement that it would join the fight against the Islamic State, even though U.S. officials announced that American F-16 fighter jets based at Incirlik Air Base in southern Turkey had hit their first targets in Syria, which “officials cheered as a significant step forward.” However, some U.S. officials are skeptical that Turkey may just be using “its recent agreement with the U.S. to fight Islamic State as cover for a new offensive against Kurdish separatist group PKK.” It’s a common critique both in Turkey and in Washington, and although the PKK is branded as a terrorist organization by Turkey and the United States, the YPG, its Syrian affiliate, has proved an effective ally to the U.S. by fighting the Islamic State on the ground.

After an embarrassing debut for the dozens of U.S.-trained fighters in Syria, the United States is looking for new ways to recalibrate what the Pentagon is calling the New Syrian Force. The Washington Post tells us that U.S. is now reexamining how they will utilize the U.S. trained rebels “given that the scale of the U.S-backed fighting force is dramatically smaller than expected, and it has already proved vulnerable to a multitude of adversaries within Syria.”

Kurdish forces in northern Iraq have reported being attacked by ISIS with chemical weapons. A spokesman from the German Defense Ministry says there are indications chemical weapons were used against the Kurdish peshmerga that left many suffering from “respiratory irritation.” He also reported that American and Iraqi specialists from Baghdad are on their way to investigate what happened. The Islamic State has been accused in past of using chlorine in attacks against the peshmerga in a number of instances. One expert predicts that “Although these chemical attacks appear to be test cases, we expect IS construction skills to advance rapidly as they have for other IEDS (improvised explosive devices).” The AFP has the story.

The Times provides an in-depth report on what journalist Rukmini Callimachi describes as ISIS’s “theology of rape”---that is, the extremist group’s use of religion to justify and maintain an intricate bureaucratic system of sexual slavery. ISIS’s systematic use of rape focuses exclusively on Yazidi women, on the grounds of the Yazidis’ polytheistic faith. The story is a harrowing window into the group’s brutal justifications for its violations of human rights.

Afghan President Ashraf Ghani is doing his best to mend the rift with Pakistan after recent outcry over perceived Pakistani sponsorship of terror attacks across Afghanistan. President Ghani has “invested huge amounts of energy and political capital in repairing ties with Pakistan,” the Guardian writes---yet so far, the president has little to show for his efforts. And beside Ghani’s own political future, the long-term diplomatic relationship between the two testy neighbors may be on the line.

As one Lawfare reader said, "Bruce Riedel gets results:" al Qaeda leader Ayman al Zawahiri has pledged his allegiance to the Taliban’s new commander, Mullah Mohammed Akhtar Mansour. Zawahiri’s endorsement may bolster Mansour’s standing within the Taliban, as internal conflict continues over Mansour’s recent ascension to the Taliban’s leadership in the wake of Mullah Omar’s confirmed death. Reuters has the story.

First Mullah Omar, now Abubakar Shekau. The Boko Haram leader has not been seen for months, the Los Angeles Times reports, and now Chad’s President Idriss Deby has stated that Shekau is no longer in control of the militant group. It’s not clear whether Shekau is dead, injured, or deposed---and it’s also unclear who will replace him (assuming someone hasn't already).

According to the BBC, Nigerian President Muhammadu Buhari has given the military a three-month deadline to defeat Boko Haram. Perhaps the Nigerian military’s rocky efforts to crack down on the group will go more smoothly in Shekau’s absence.

Switzerland has become the first country to lift sanctions on Iran under the nuclear agreement, Bloomberg writes. Also on the topic of the nuclear deal, former senators Carl Levin (D-MI) and John Warner (R-VA) have penned an article in Politico on how the agreement may actually strengthen the credibility of U.S. military deterrence against Iran. The international coalition created by the deal, they argue, makes military action against a potential nuclear Iran that much more possible---and, for Iranian hardliners, concerning.

But the Times tells us that Qassim Suleimani, an Iranian general at the heart of Iran’s efforts to back Syrian President Bashar al Assad, has violated a U.N. travel ban by journeying to Moscow---casting doubt on both Iranian and Russian intentions to comply with the nuclear deal. The travel ban, imposed on Iranian officials for involvement with nuclear and ballistic missile programs, is set to be lifted in eight years under the terms of the deal. Suleimani himself became a flashpoint of debate over the sanctions relief at the heart of the nuclear agreement, with many critics feeling that the lifting of sanctions on the notorious military commander was unmerited.

The Daily Beast reports on the presence of U.S. paratroopers in Ukraine, who have arrived to train Ukrainian forces for combat against separatist and potential Russian troops. Russian President Vladimir Putin appears to be alarmed by the paratroopers, concerned that even their limited role may signal U.S. readiness to get more directly involved in the conflict. “Putin is ready to fight with NATO,” says a former Kremlin advisor, “as he sincerely believes that the U.S. wants to occupy Russia.” More cause for Putin’s concern: according to Foreign Policy, 64% of Ukrainians now support their country’s joining NATO, the first time that a majority of the Ukrainian population desired membership in the organization since the fall of the Soviet Union.

A Russian army major has been captured and detained by Ukrainian authorities for fighting on behalf of separatists, Euronews tells us. The major, who will be charged with terrorism, told Ukrainian security forces that “around 2,000 Russian servicemen” are currently fighting in Eastern Ukraine---flatly contradicting the Kremlin, which maintains that no Russian soldiers are participating in the conflict.

Meanwhile, Russian President Vladimir Putin is doing his best to “spark a manufactured crisis over the Arctic” by claiming exclusive economic rights to a broad swath of the Arctic Sea. Defense One suggests that the Kremlin may be trying to draw domestic attention away from the crisis in Ukraine and the economic problems Russia is suffering as a result of sanctions, attempting to shore up the president’s popularity.

Another distraction: Foreign Policy also brings us news of a poorly-concocted Russian effort to pin the downing of Malaysian Airlines Flight MH17 on the CIA. On Wednesday, a Russian tabloid released audio of what appears to be two Russians badly impersonating CIA agents, who discuss “preparations” to take down a plane in order to discredit Ukrainian separatists.

A pair of enormous explosions rocked the Chinese port city of Tianjin on Wednesday night, killing at least 50 people and hospitalizing roughly 700. The explosions, which occurred at the warehouse of a company authorized to store hazardous chemicals, blew out thousands of glass windows, produced miles-wide shock waves, and were large enough to be seen from space. The cause of the explosions remains unknown, though authorities continue to investigate. The Journal has the story, while the BBC reports on the government’s censorship of both news coverage and online discussion of the explosions.

The Post’s editorial board weighs in on the debate over how best to respond to foreign cyberattacks. While such attacks pose an increasingly serious threat, the U.S. government has been “complacent and lazy in responding,” the board writes.

Sweden has dropped two of the four sexual assault cases against Wikileaks founder Julian Assange and is preparing to drop a third. Prosecutors have been unable to question Assange, who is currently taking refuge in the Ecuadorian embassy in London; this in turn leaves them unable to bring certain charges against him before the expiration of relevant statutes of limitation---two today, and a third next Thursday. Reuters tells us that negotiations are continuing between Sweden and Ecuador, and that the prosecutors will continue to investigate the remaining case.

The Intercept examines a recently obtained report by the Department of Defense Inspector General on the military’s drone acquisition program. Disputes by the Army and Air Force led to inefficiencies that may have cost the military up to $400 million, due to the two services’ unwillingness to combine their programs for acquiring unmanned aircraft. Yet the piece suggests that the real story may be why both the Army and Air Force felt they needed to operate their own drones.

Over at the Hill, Maj. Gen. Charlie Dunlap critiques a recent piece by the Times editorial board on the treatment of journalists under the DOD Law of War Manual. The editorial, he argues, ignores the DOD manual’s reliance on well-established international law under the Geneva Conventions, and is “nonsensical” as a result. Alex Loomis, writing for Lawfare, agreed.

Parting shot: “Do not fly drones near birds of prey.” These words of wisdom come from an amateur drone operator, who caught on camera an eagle’s attack on his device---not the first time that a wild animal has taken issue with a drone.

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

As noted above, Alex Loomis commented on the Times editorial on the DOD Law of War manual, giving us a further run-down of the manual’s description of international law and the Times’s fundamental understanding of the manual’s purpose.

Stewart Baker posted the Steptoe Cyberlaw Podcast. This week: should the United States abandon its policy against economic espionage?

Bruce Schneier considered an op-ed by several prosecutors, which warned against the dangers of “going dark,” suggesting that the “a few bits and pieces” of surveillance “are becoming expensive again” but that “isn’t a cause for alarm.”

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