Today's Headlines and Commentary

The Washington Post reports that President Obama is considering leaving a standing U.S. force of 5,000 troops in Afghanistan beyond 2016. If implemented, that decision would represent a dramatic departure from his plan to remove all U.S. troops from Afghanistan before leaving office. Former chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff Army Gen. Martin E. Dempsey presented the proposal in August; it would leave a residual force in Afghanistan to conduct counterterrorism operations throughout the country using a series of "lily-pad" forward operating bases. The plan is the latest signal that the collapse of Iraqi security forces, along with aggression by the Taliban and the Islamic State, is causing U.S. officials to recalibrate their approach to the region.

Questions linger about the airstrike in Kunduz that struck a Médecins Sans Frontières, or Doctors Without Borders, facility. The New York Times considers Gen. John F. Campbell’s response to the situation and the M.S.F. criticism that the “military’s description of the attack keeps changing — from collateral damage, to a tragic incident, to now attempting to pass responsibility to the Afghanistan government.” General Campbell addressed the Senate Armed Services Committee earlier this morning on the U.S. mission in Afghanistan, confirming that Afghan security forces called in the air strike. Foreign Policy also discusses the responses to the assault—which General Campbell called “tragic," but which Doctors Without Borders has called a “war crime.”

As the controversy over the strike continues, Taliban fighters have resorted to “hit and run” tactics against Afghan security forces, as the latter tries to clear Kunduz of insurgents.

Panning east towards Syria: The Times writes that Russian “volunteer” ground forces are set to join the conflict in Syria, adding that the move “seemed similar to Russia’s stealth tactic in using soldiers to seize Crimea from Ukraine in March of 2014 and to aid pro-Moscow rebels in eastern Ukraine.” According to the Times report, U.S. military officials suspect that “more than 600 Russian military personnel were already on the ground in Syria, not counting aircrews,” and “that tents for nearly 2,000 people had been seen at Russia’s air base near Latakia, in northwest Syria near the Turkish border.” The Post adds that “Russia has said it will not send ground forces to Syria, but it is possible that Moscow will call on irregular volunteers such as those that have fought in Ukraine to supplement the wearied and depleted Syrian army in an offensive to reclaim territory.” A senior defense official told NBC News that the recent positioning of Russian equipment, artillery, and troops in the Hama province indicates an imminent ground operation on the part of the Syrian government.

Speaking of Russian airstrikes, the Journal confirms that “Russia has targeted Syrian rebel groups backed by the Central Intelligence Agency in a string of airstrikes running for days, leading the U.S. to conclude that it is an intentional effort by Moscow.” In a direct challenge to President Obama’s strategy in Syria, Russian forces have continued to target areas not under ISIS control despite continued assurance that their “airstrikes are targeted at ISIL [Islamic State], Nusra, and other terrorist groups.” This has “deepened U.S. anger at Moscow and sparked a debate within the administration over how the U.S. can come to the aid of its proxy forces without getting sucked deeper into a proxy war that President Barack Obama says he doesn’t want.”

One solution: U.S.-supported rebel groups have asked the United States for increased support in the face of Russian strikes; today, President Obama has announced plans to resupply rebels.

Elsewhere, the Times updated their maps of Russian airstrike targets in Syria, comparing them to the United States’ targets and discussing how the different targets review divergent strategies, and even competing priorities.

NATO expressed concern over the Russian incursion into Turkish airspace that briefly occurred over the weekend. Describing the incident as “extremely dangerous” and “unacceptable,” NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg rejected Russia’s explanation of the incursion as accidental. On Saturday, a Russian SU-30 entered Turkish airspace and was subsequently intercepted by two Turkish F-16s. A Russian MiG-29 fighter also locked its radar onto a patrol of Turkish F-16s for 4 minutes and 30 seconds, without explanation.

Secretary of State John Kerry also weighed in on the incident, remarking that Turkey would have been within its rights to shoot the Russian plane down. The United States and Russia plan to continue discussions to ensure necessary deconfliction. But it remains unclear whether any further cooperation will occur between the two countries.

It’s a scary thought, but the Military Times discusses Russia's re-emergence“as America's chief military rival” and considers what a potential war would look like between the two states.

Contradictory reports about Russian strikes in Palmyra have emerged, as Reuters suggests that Russian strikes destroyed twenty ISIS vehicles and three weapons depots while killing 15 militants. But Russia denied that it had launched the strikes, saying “our planes in Syria do not strike populated areas and especially ones with architectural monuments.” That denial runs counter to claims by Syrian state television and a monitoring group, both of which say that Russian forces did, in fact, attack the area.

Vice News writes that “dozens of conservative Saudi Arabian clerics have called for Arab and Muslim countries to ‘give all moral, material, political and military’ support to what they term a jihad, or holy war, against Syria's government and its Iranian and Russian backers.” Saudi religious leaders remain divided about some of the opposition groups in Syria as many “Saudi religious leaders also have denounced the Islamic State and al Qaeda.”

In Iraq, a series of car bombs claimed 63 lives; the Islamic State claimed responsibility for at least one of the attacks.

As Time tells us that 3 million more refugees could flee Syria, Britain’s interior minister Theresa May rejected any potential common European policy to deal with the influx of refugees and migrants. She spoke out in support of tighter border control measures that would shelter those in need while keeping out those seeking economic advantages.

The announcement comes as a total of 1,830 migrants were rescued from six boats found adrift off the Libyan coast yesterday. Reuters writes that over 2,980 have died or disappeared in attempting to cross the Mediterranean.

As the U.N. continues to push Libya’s rival governments to sign a peace deal, the country’s internationally-recognized parliament voted to extend its own mandate beyond its deadline on October 20. According to AP, “the move could signal a lack of confidence in the ongoing U.N. efforts to strike a deal between Libya's two rival governments and form a national unity government.”

In Yemen, an explosion hit a hotel housing deposed government officials. According to Reuters, an Islamic State-affiliate claimed responsibility for the attack. But the Times reports that the official Saudi Press Agency "official Saudi Press Agency, which blamed incoming Russian-designed Katyusha rockets for the blasts." Accoriding to the Times, weapons of that kind have been seized by Houthi rebels before.

Gulf-coalition forces have taken Yemen’s Perim Island from Iran-backed Houthi fighters, denying Iran a “symbolic foothold astride trade routes” in the Red Sea. Reuters has more.

In Tunisia, local authorities busted three suspected ISIS recruiting cells and arrested eleven people suspected of attempting to join the group in Libya.

Tensions escalated in Israel as Israeli security forces ratcheted up efforts to quell Palestinian violence and protests. The BBC reports on the death of a 13 year old Palestinian boy, who was killed by Israeli fire during clashes at Rachel’s Tomb. The PA issued a communique calling on the international community “to intervene to compel Israel to cease its violations in the Palestinian territory, the latest of which was the killing of two young men in the occupied city of Jerusalem, and a series of incursions into the cities and villages of the West bank.” Yet, the Times of Israel notes that the PA’s statement did not mention that the two men were killed while carrying out stabbing attacks against Israeli civilians nor did it explicitly condemn the violence. The attacks led Israeli authorities to take a “drastic” measure and close the Old City to Palestinians.

The latest round of violence follows fighting near al-Aqsa mosque in recent weeks, and one of the assailants warned that “the third intifada has begun” as a reaction to Israeli policy at the mosque. Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu has pledged a “harsh offensive against Palestinian Islamic terrorism” but many analysts fear his response could spur further escalation. Israel also struck Hamas targets in Gaza in response to rocket fire from the group.

The New York Times covers the reception of the Trans-Pacific Partnership across the Asia-Pacific, noting that many U.S. allies see the agreement as a check against a rising China.

Elsewhere, Ars Technica reports on what the accord will mean for intellectual property law. Citing leaked chapters of the agreement, they report that the TPP adopts “copyright measures far more restrictive than currently required by international treaties.” Other elements of the deal may push back against data localization laws; a summary of the deal released by the U.S. Trade Representative included provisions “designed to ensure the free flow of information and data [across borders] subject only to legitimate public policy considerations regarding personal privacy or data protections.”

Those considerations might be pretty sweeping, at least gauging by a decision of the European Court of Justice—which today struck down the U.S.-E.U. "Safe Harbor" framework. Among other things, the Court ruled that the framework, which had allowed companies to move data between the European Union and the United States, violates the right to privacy under the Charter of Fundamental Rights of the European Union.

The ECJ judgment is likely to have significant consequences for major tech firms such as Google and Facebook, and for small tech companies that do not have the legal resources to risk a privacy battle against a European government. One privacy lawyer in Chicago said that “the ruling is so sweepingly broad that any mechanism used to transfer data from Europe could be under threat.” Both the Times and the Journal have more. On Lawfare, Alex Loomis provides a summary of the ECJ’s opinion, outlining its key findings.

In the Christian Science Monitor, Lawfare’s Paul Rosenzweig writes on “the troubling rise of Internet borders,” arguing that “left unchecked, this instinct to create sovereign barriers risks fracturing the Web in ways that will jeopardize its economic, political, and social utility.”

Britain’s most senior counterterrorism police officer said yesterday that terrorism investigations are becoming more difficult as social media and tech companies develop products that make it impossible to access data. Speaking before the Royal United Services Institute, a London think-tank, London Assistant Commissioner Mark Rowley said, “we have a growing Achilles heel that, if it is not tackled, will slowly diminish our ability to keep the public safe.”

In Defense One, Marcus Weisgerber covers a new 210-page report from Pentagon acquisition chief Frank Kendall. It warns that the Department of Defense has become so risk-averse in its arms buying that “in some areas we may not be pushing the state-of-the-art enough in terms of technical performance.” Kendall’s report comes amid concerns that the United States is quickly losing its technological superiority over its foes as the Pentagon implements its “Better Buying Power” program.

Edward Snowden appeared on BBC yesterday, telling the British news channel that he had not yet received an offer for a plea deal from the U.S. government, even though he has “volunteered to go to prison...many times.”

Parting Shot: From the department of the future: a team of researchers at Carnegie Mellon University have developed Baxter, a deep-learning robot capable of teaching itself how to pick up a variety of different objects.

ICYMI: This Weekend, on Lawfare

Ben shared his thoughts on James Lewis’ comments on the China cyber deal the Obama administration announced last week with regards to cyber espionage. The BLUF; Lewis is far more optimistic than some writers on Lawfare have been, and he may have a point.

Nick Weaver wrote on “law enforcement and the world wide web of spies,” addressing the seemingly infinite “minefield of tracking devices” on any given webpage.

Peter Gourevitch penned a response to Yaakov Amidror on the Iran deal and the future of the two-state solution.

Bobby asked if the new lily-pad like “global counterterrorism footprint” is the new normal in the “global war on terror.”

Stewart Baker posted the Steptoe Cyberlaw Podcast, which features an interview with Bruce Schneier from the conference “Privacy. Security. Risk. 2015.”

Finally, Lawfare’s newest senior contributor, David Bosco, wrote on Kunduz and the role of ICC scrutiny of U.S. forces in Afghanistan.

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