Today's Headlines and Commentary

The suspected architect behind Friday’s attacks in Paris was reportedly killed in a raid involving over 100 security personnel and lasting more than seven hours. Abdelhamid Abaaoud and one other suspect died, and seven others were arrested when “French police stormed an apartment in the medieval heart of the northern Paris suburb of St.-Denis.” Reports of Mr. Abaaoud’s death are not officially confirmed. The Daily Beast writes that Abaaoud was not a mastermind of the attacks, but instead a go-between with connections to senior ISIS figures and footsoldiers. CNN continues to update with the latest from Paris.

As investigators focus on the Brussels neighborhood of Molenbeek, Defense One highlights how Belgium has become the center of jihadi networks in Europe. In recent years, Molenbeek “has been at the heart of a thriving black market where military weapons can be bought in record time." The neighborhood’s high unemployment levels, rampant poverty, and overcrowding have made it a “hotbed of jihadism.”

France's right-wing political parties, embodied by Front National leader Marine le Pen, are capitalizing on the Friday's attacks, pushing out anti-immigrant and anti-Islam messages. Le Pen declared that "immigration has become favorable terrain for the development of Islamism." As mistrust creeps into the political discourse, the New Yorker examines the fear gripping French Muslims in the aftermath of the attacks. In the Intercept, Murtaza Hussain draws from ISIS’s English-language magazine, Dabiq, notes that one goal of the Paris attacks was to “‘eliminate the grayzone’ of coexistence between Muslims and the West.”

Foreign Policy reports that the Paris attacks have also reopened the crypto wars. The Wall Street Journal writes that the increasingly suspected use of encryption apps in the coordination of the attacks has prompted reconsideration of surveillance policy. Amid ongoing debates pitting surveillance against privacy, the attacks have caused many to re-emphasize security concerns over privacy considerations.

And it looks like some technology firms are already taking notice of the shifting debate. The encrypted social media app Telegram--a jihadist favorite--has started taking down ISIS propaganda channels. The app released a statement noting they had taken down 78 ISIS-related channels across 12 languages.

Adding to the list of actors fighting against ISIS, the hacktivist group Anonymous declared war on the militant group following the Paris attacks. The group reportedly deleted thousand of twitter accounts associated with the group.

Reuters reports that the Islamic State has claimed the bomb responsible for bringing down the Russian plane over the Sinai was constructed from a can of Schweppes. A Russian newspaper, citing a source close to the investigation, reported that the bomb had been at the rear of the cabin and “led to the destruction of the frame and depressurization of the cabin.” Egyptian President Abdel-Fattah el-Sissi spoke with Russian counterpart Vladimir Putin following the confirmation that a bomb was on the plane.

In response to the attacks on both France and Russia, Moscow announced that “it was coordinating with the French military in sharply ratcheting up attacks on Syrian territory, especially areas held by the Islamic State.” Similarly, President Obama announced that he was “open to cooperating with Russia in the campaign against the Islamic State,” but only if Russia was willing to stop targeting opposition forces fighting the Assad regime. The Guardian writes that “Russian and U.S. forces have for the first time exchanged military information during airstrikes against Islamic State targets in Syria.” Secretary of State John Kerry praised the cooperation, saying that the United States and Russia “agreed to exchange more information,” promising that “over the course of the next weeks, Daesh will feel greater pressure.”

Following French President François Hollande’s declaration of war on ISIS and the French invocation of Europe’s mutual defense clause, Politico takes a look at the French way of war, suggesting that French forces “specialize in carefully apportioned and usually small but lethal operations, often behind the scenes.”

The Military Times reports that the aircraft carrier USS Harry S. Truman is on its way to the Middle East. Officials are discussing whether the ship will stop in the eastern Mediterranean to bomb ISIS targets, “joining [a] French carrier in a show of force and solidarity.”

Visiting Paris in the wake of the attacks, John Kerry told reporters that a cease-fire and political transition in Syria is critical to defeating the Islamic State, adding that the United States, France and Russia must further coordinate in their strikes against ISIS. The Guardian writes that Kerry “has given an upbeat assessment of prospects for diplomatic efforts to end the war in Syria and fight Islamic State, saying a ceasefire between Bashar al-Assad and the rebels fighting to overthrow him could now be just weeks away.”

In Politico, Jessica Stern suggests that the more the U.S.-led coalition attacks ISIS, “the more its appeal as a terrorist organization will grow among those who see the West as an enemy.” In addition, military defeat in Iraq and Syria is insufficient to end its deadly reign, as ”its provinces must be defeated, its ideology crushed, and its seductive appeal undermined.”

Yet amid calls to escalate the war against ISIS, U.S. military officials remain skeptical of further U.S. involvement. Recalling recent U.S. wars in the region, military leaders have suggested that U.S. forces could face similar challenges to those faced in Iraq and Afghanistan. They argue that U.S. troops are unlikely to be successful unless more is done to train and equip local allies, to improve governing structures in the states fractured by civil war, and to secure a diplomatic end to the Syrian civil war.

Aaron David Miller considers the obstacles to a global “coalition of the willing” in the fight against the militant group. Similarly, the Washington Post asks whether or not "it may already be too late and too difficult [...] for any swift or easy solution to the tangled mess the Middle East has become in the four years since the Arab Spring plunged the region into turmoil."

McClatchy tells us that “U.S.-backed Arab militias began a new offensive against the Islamic State in eastern Syria this week, a bid to flush the extremists out of a key transit zone for fighters, weapons and oil.” The Arab offensive is led by a new group of 2,200 fighters that calls itself the New Syrian Army. But as this new offensive takes place, Foreign Policy writes that despite the large amount of oil-revenue raised by the militant group, the Islamic State’s most significant funding comes from “extorting money from the millions of people who live under its brutal rule” and suggests that targeting oil-fields might not be enough to break the group.

The BBC reports that strikes in Raqqa have killed at least 33 ISIS militants. The Syrian Observatory for Human Rights reports that dozens senior ISIS members and their families have begun leaving Raqqa for Mosul because of security concerns.

If you needed more proof that Russia is using its foray into Syria to demonstrate renewed military capabilities, the Daily Beast reports on a massive strategic bomber operation over the skies of the Islamic State. In what Davie Axe calls “shock and awe on steroids,” the Kremlin dispatched a combination of 25 TU-22M Backfires, TU-95 Bears, and TU-160 Blackjack bombers, the largest combat planes ever built.

Kurdish forces reclaimed the Iraqi town of Sinjar from the Islamic State last week, a victory which commanders on the ground say was aided by the withdrawal of ISIS’s forces. While the victory cut off a critical ISIS supply route, the operation may have done more to reveal details about how the Islamic State fights. The Associated Press reports that the ISIS militants’ “tactical retreat [...] points to the pragmatism that the group can show when badly outgunned.”

Remember the other war? Germany has announced that it will send an additional 130 soldiers to Afghanistan. In recent months, the country has faced a rising insurgent threat from both the Taliban and Islamic State forces.

Following a meeting with his Philippine counterpart, President Obama maintained that China “must stop land reclamation in the disputed South China Sea.” Just before the start of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) summit meeting, Obama told reporters that the United States and Philippines “agree on the need for bold steps to lower tensions, including pledging to halt further reclamation, new construction, and militarization of disputed areas in the South China Sea.”

General Raheel Sharif, the head of the Pakistani Army, is scheduled to visit Washington this week and the New York Times profiles the “most popular man” in Pakistan. In Defense One, Daniel Markey argues that “it is time for a frank talk” with General Sharif.

In Nigeria, Boko Haram militants are suspected of planting a bomb in a Yola marketplace, killing 32 people. Nigerian officials maintain that Boko Haram has lost ground in the country and that the group is becoming increasingly disorganized, yet the Independent tells us that, in terms of lives lost, Boko Haram has overtaken ISIS as the deadliest terrorist group.

Republican lawmakers led by Speaker of the House Paul Ryan (R-WI) are calling for the United States to stop accepting Syrian refugees. Additionally, all "Republican presidential candidates have called for barring the refugees entirely or limiting the group to Christians.” Politico reports that the House is likely to vote Thursday on legislation that would require the government to certify that the refugees do not pose a security threat.

The White House has reacted strongly to the anti-refugee rhetoric, calling the concerns “unfounded.” President Obama has also criticized language used by those opposed to refugees as a "potent recruitment tool for ISIL," stating that anti-immigrant attitudes feed into the Islamic State’s narrative. The White House and several U.S. federal agencies charged with refugee processing maintain that the “refugees already undergo the most rigorous screening of any foreigners entering the country” and the Obama administration continues to stand by the plan to bring 10,000 Syrian refugees into the country next year.

Yet several high-level administration officials have previously conceded refugees may present a security risk. In September, Director of National Intelligence James Clapper said he would not “put it past the likes of ISIL to infiltrate operatives among these refugees.” In Lawfare, Ben Wittes challenges the notion that Syrian refugees should be denied entry to the United States just because a handful may present a security risk, arguing that both moral and strategic considerations press the United States to accept the refugees.

Attorney General Loretta Lynch told Congress yesterday that “the law currently does not allow” the president to transfer Guantanamo detainees to the continental United States, the Hill reports. Reflecting on Lynch’s remarks, Lawfare’s Jack Goldsmith writes that the “real significance of Lynch’s remarks [...] is that apparently no one in the White House has even raised the question of the constitutionality of the relocation restrictions with DOJ or OLC.”

Parting shot: Need one more example of what a complex mess the Syrian war has become? Then don’t miss this video of an American-backed Syrian rebel using an American-supplied TOW anti-tank missile to destroy an American-issued Humvee, which presumably was in the possession of the Islamic State.

ICYMI: Yesterday, on Lawfare

Ben provided a “defense of refugees,” arguing that there are both moral and strategic reasons to accept the thousands of people fleeing ISIS and Assad.

Steve Vladeck outlined the legal issues at play in the recent proclamation by several governors that they would not accept Syrian refugees into their states.

Cody highlighted the cyber sections of the latest G20 Leaders’ Communiqué.

Herb Lin shared a few lessons from the Paris attacks on encryption and lawful hacking.

Raul “Pete” Pedrozo and James Kraska argued that the legal implications of the recent U.S. Navy’s freedom of navigation exercises in the South China Sea remain inexplicable.

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