Zelensky’s American Saga: Victory Plan and Angry Republicans

Volodymyr Zelensky’s latest American saga is over: The Ukrainian president is back in Kyiv after a high-stakes trip last week to the United States, where he tried to boost support for Ukraine at the White House, the United Nations, and even Trump Tower. 

Zelensky thanked workers at an ammunition plant in Scranton, spoke at the UN General Assembly, and presented his “victory plan” to President Biden, Vice President Harris, and former President Trump.

There were no breakthroughs, but there was a lot of controversy; the meeting with Trump, for example, almost didn’t happen, as tensions between Zelensky and the Republican Party rose over Trump’s pro-Russian rhetoric. 

It was likely a tense flight back to Kyiv for the Ukrainian president. The timing, purpose, and outcomes of Zelensky’s U.S. visit suggest Ukraine is racing against time to get ready for whatever comes next after Nov. 5. 

Inflection Point 

Zelensky’s trip came at an inflection point for Ukraine, one that has many Ukrainians alarmed over the future course of the war with Russia. 

The Ukrainian army is still occupying almost 500 square miles of Russian territory in Kursk Oblast, which Russia has struggled to liberate for two months. 

On the one hand, it is a shocking example of Russia’s inability to protect its self-proclaimed red lines: The Kremlin hasn’t been able to restore its territorial integrity, but it also hasn’t resorted to any escalatory measures, as many Americans feared. On the other hand, Ukraine has had to drain valuable resources to continue holding that territory, which Kyiv says is necessary for future negotiations. 

At the same time, Ukraine’s eastern front is suffering from an intense Russian offensive aimed at capturing the entirety of Donetsk and Luhansk Oblasts. The town of Vuhledar is destroyed and might be encircled. The much larger, critically important town of Pokrovsk is scrambling to evacuate civilians, as only six miles now separate it from the Russian army. Dozens of villages are facing Russian occupation. Moscow’s eastern push hasn’t slowed down much, despite Kyiv’s hopes that invading Kursk Oblast would make that happen.

Photo published by the 95th Air Assault Brigade. 

An ocean away from the eastern battlefield, another consequential battle is taking shape: Donald Trump vs. Kamala Harris. Less than six weeks away from the presidential election, Ukraine is watching closely, as the country’s fate depends on political decisions in Washington, from which around 90 percent of Ukraine’s military aid comes. 

Neither candidate is running on a platform that would relieve Ukrainians—that is to say lifting restrictions on Ukrainian use of American weapons and making more advanced weapons systems available, and faster. But only one—Trump—is running on an overtly anti-Ukrainian ticket. 

Some Ukrainians worry Trump will force them into an unfavorable settlement to end the war quickly. Others say Trump is unpredictable and might be tougher with Putin than Biden was (a belief rooted in the dislike of Biden’s indecisiveness, more than any particular reason to be optimistic about Trump). 

All this gives the next month a sense of urgency for Ukrainians. 

If Trump wins in November, the next few months might be Ukraine’s last chance to negotiate something valuable with the U.S. government. After Biden dropped out of the race, some analysts speculated that he might significantly ramp up aid to Ukraine to boost his presidential legacy. 

Conversely, now is also the time to foster relationships with Trump, though judging by his increasingly pro-Russian rhetoric, the chance of success in that regard does not seem strong. 

What’s in the Victory Plan? 

The Ukrainian government still hasn’t made the victory plan public, so its exact details remain unknown. In interviews and public addresses, Zelensky said the plan includes four main points, as well as a fifth additional point to be implemented after the war. 

In an interview with CNN in mid-September, Zelensky said the plan covers security issues, Ukraine’s geopolitical standing, defense aid, and economic assistance. Presidential Chief of Staff Andriy Yermak said later that an invitation to NATO was also a part of the victory plan. In August, Zelensky said Ukraine’s Kursk operation was a part of the plan too. 

As his U.S. trip wrapped up, Zelensky said in a statement that the plan concerned Ukraine’s long-range capabilities, military aid, sanctions against Russia, and “steps on Russian assets,” the last of which refers to the $300 billion frozen Russia assets Ukraine wants to use for reconstruction and other purposes. “Everything is being considered,” Zelensky said. 

From publicly available information, it seems as if the Ukrainian government wants to launch a large-scale campaign of targeted air strikes against Russia’s key military facilities. The goal would be to force Moscow into talks in which Ukraine would have the upper hand, including a chunk of Russian land to trade back for its own territory under Russian control. 

Developing Ukraine’s long-range capabilities is arguably the plan’s most urgent point—and the subject of active debate over the past few weeks. On Sept. 13, Biden and U.K. Prime Minister Keir Starmer met to discuss mutual foreign policy concerns, including the issue of letting Ukraine hit Russia with their weapons. London is reportedly ready to allow Ukraine to use its Storm Shadow missiles deep inside Russia but is waiting for Washington’s green light.

Ukrainians have been asking for approval to strike deep inside Russian territory for many months, frustrated that Western restrictions impede their war effort. Hundreds of Russian military sites, including airfields and weapons caches, are de facto protected by Washington’s restrictions. Under the restrictions, Ukraine is free to hit these targets using its own weapons—which has helped spur domestic production of drones and other weapons—but not with American weapons, or weapons with American components.

ATACMS have proven themselves.

📹: @GeneralStaffUA pic.twitter.com/Sd9rYYbkwe

— Defense of Ukraine (@DefenceU) October 18, 2023

The need to strike inside Russia became especially acute after Moscow began using guided bombs, known as glide bombs, which are cheap but very destructive munitions that have devastated Ukrainian cities near the frontline. These bombs are launched from aircraft and are almost impossible for Ukrainians to intercept, so Ukraine needs to destroy the planes before they can launch the guided bombs and other missiles. 

The White House remains divided over this issue. The Washington Post has reported anonymous American officials saying that the White House doesn’t plan to lift the restrictions soon. Officials also expressed frustration over Kyiv’s supposed lack of understanding of the issue’s sensitivity. The New York Times also reported officials downplaying the potential impact of such strikes, citing Ukraine’s limited number of long-range missiles.

The Institute for the Study of War, a D.C. think tank, pushed back against this assertion in a recent report, saying that: 

[E]ven a small number of successful Ukrainian long-range strikes could have asymmetric impacts and prompt Russian forces to move significant military and storage facilities outside the range of Western-provided weapons and further away from the frontline—complicating Russian logistics in the vicinity of Ukraine. 

Republican Drama

Kyiv and the Biden administration do not see eye to eye on some things, but that dynamic pales in comparison to Zelensky’s tensions with the Republican Party, which served as a backdrop to the entire trip.

On Sept. 22, the day Zelensky landed in the U.S., the New Yorker ran an interview in which the Ukrainian president spoke out against Trump and his running mate J.D. Vance.

Zelensky said Vance was being “too radical” in encouraging Ukraine to give up its territories as part of a peace plan. “The idea that the world should end this war at Ukraine’s expense is unacceptable. But I do not consider this concept of his a plan, in any formal sense,” Zelensky said.

Vance has previously suggested freezing the current front line and building a heavily fortified demilitarized zone between Ukraine and its Russia-occupied territories, which would mean Ukraine giving up a quarter of its territory. 

The Ukrainian president also commented on Trump’s promises to end the war quickly: 

My feeling is that Trump doesn’t really know how to stop the war even if he might think he knows how …. I’ve seen many leaders who were convinced they knew how to end it tomorrow, and as they waded deeper into it, they realized it’s not that simple.

Three days later, Trump shot back at Zelensky during a rally in North Carolina for “making nasty little aspersions” about him, clearly referencing the New Yorker interview. “We continue to give billions of dollars to a man who refuses to make a deal: Zelensky,” Trump said. 

He then went even further: “Ukraine is gone. It’s not Ukraine anymore. You can never replace those cities and towns …. Any deal, even the worst deal, would have been better than what we have right now.” 

Poll data suggest most Ukrainians disagree with that sentiment. 

Hours after the rally, House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) released a bitter public letter addressed to Zelensky, demanding that he immediately remove Ukraine’s ambassador to the United States, Oksana Markarova, from her post

Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelensky, on the left, with Ukraine’s Ambassador to the United States Oksana Markarova, on the right, during Zelensky’s trip to the U.S. in September 2024. Photo published by the Office of the President of Ukraine. 

Johnson accused Markarova, a notably popular figure in Washington, of organizing Zelensky’s trip to an ammunition plant in Scranton, Pennsylvania—a crucial swing state—supposedly without inviting Republican representatives. 

Zelensky visited the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant on his first day of the trip. The factory produces 155 mm artillery shells, which are essential for Ukraine’s war effort. The Ukrainian president was accompanied by Scranton-born Sen. Bob Casey (D-Penn.), the district’s Rep. Matt Cartwright (D-Penn.), and Pennsylvania’s Gov. Josh Shapiro, a prominent Democrat who was considered as a running mate for Harris. Notably, Pennsylvania is home to hundreds of thousands of Ukrainians and Polish Americans, who care about the war and whose votes could decide the election. 

“The tour was clearly a partisan campaign event designed to help Democrats and is clearly election interference,” Speaker Johnson said in the letter.

Zelensky and Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro (D) visit the Scranton Army Ammunition Plant on Sept. 23, 2024. Photo published by the Office of the President of Ukraine. 

The Republican-led House Oversight Committee also began investigating whether tax funds were used inappropriately because Zelensky was flown to Scranton in a U.S. Air Force jet, though this is standard procedure when foreign heads of state move around on American soil. 

Kyiv hasn’t commented on the controversy. White House Press Secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said the investigation was a Republican “political stunt,” mentioning that no one was concerned when Zelensky visited Republicans in Utah in July.

There has been no indication that Markarova’s standing with Zelensky has been damaged by the incident. But it does reflect the weakness of the Ukrainian government’s standing among some key Republicans—even those who, like Johnson, played an important role in passing the last supplemental appropriation.

Finale 

Spoiler alert: By the end of the trip, there wasn’t a breakthrough. The White House did, however, sign off on a large aid package. 

On Sept. 25, President Biden used his drawdown authority to authorize a new $375 million military aid package for Kyiv. The package included Javelin missiles, air-to-ground munitions, armored security vehicles, and ammunition for High Mobility Artillery Rocket Systems (HIMARS), among other supplies. 

On the morning of Sept. 26, as Zelensky was arriving at the White House to meet Biden and Harris, the administration announced an additional military aid package for Ukraine worth nearly $8 billion. 

The Department of Defense will provide $2.4 billion worth of air defense, drones, and air-to-ground munitions through the Ukraine Security Assistance Initiative. Another $5.5 billion will come from presidential drawdowns. 

The package includes a first-time provision of a U.S.-produced glide bomb, the Joint Standoff Weapon (JSOW). Ukraine’s leading defense outlet, Defense Express, said the decision was “strange” given that Russia’s air superiority doesn’t let Ukraine drop the bomb at a high enough altitude, thereby cutting the maximum range of 130 kilometers by more than half. The U.S. also pledged to provide an additional Patriot air defense system, as well as F-16 training for 18 Ukrainian pilots. 

Additionally, Biden announced that on Oct. 12, he will lead a meeting of the Ukraine Defense Contact Group in Germany, known as the Ramstein format, which will involve consultations about future aid to Ukraine. Zelensky said this meeting will be “special”. 

After Zelensky met with Biden and Harris on Thursday, the White House rhetoric was noticeably strong, despite the media’s earlier reports that officials weren’t impressed with the victory plan. 

“Let me be clear: Russia will not prevail in (this) war …. Ukraine will prevail,” Biden said in a prerecorded video released by Zelensky. 

That morning’s aid package press release also stated that “[t]he United States will provide Ukraine with the support it needs to win this war.”

Zelensky and Vice President Kamala Harris at a joint press conference after their meeting on Sept. 26, 2024. Photo published by the Office of the President of Ukraine. 

During a joint press conference with Zelensky after the meeting, Harris said, “There are some in my country who would instead force Ukraine to give up large parts of its sovereign territory, who would demand that Ukraine accept neutrality.” It was a clear reference to Trump and his allies. 

“These proposals are the same as those of Putin, and let us be clear, they are not proposals for peace,” she said at the press conference. “Instead, they are proposals for surrender, which is dangerous and unacceptable.”

It was unclear if a meeting with Trump would happen after all, until it was announced that Zelensky was extending his trip to meet the former president in Trump Tower in New York on Friday. 

The scene was awkward: Trump and Zelensky stood rigidly shoulder to shoulder in front of the press, exchanging forced pleasantries, just days after Trump publicly insulted the Ukrainian leader.

Zelensky stands near former President Donald Trump after their meeting in Trump Tower in New York on Sept. 27, 2024. Photo published by the Office of the President of Ukraine. 

After the meeting, Trump told journalists that Zelensky helped him avoid impeachment (for withholding aid to Ukraine until they dig up dirt on Biden’s son) by saying that “Trump did absolutely nothing wrong,” which Zelensky never did. 

“We have a very good relationship,” Trump told the press. “And I also have a good relationship, as you know, with President Putin.” 

“I hope we have [better] relations,” Zelensky responded. Ukraine’s fate very well might depend on that becoming true.