HPSCI in the Next Congress

What follows is rank speculation.  It is teasing out a trend from some isolated facts and it may well be completely in error.  But, that having been said, the tea leaves tell me that the future holds a far more confrontational relationship between the House Permanent Select Committee on Intelligence and the intelligence community which it oversees. Start with what is manifestly known – Chairman Mike Rogers is leaving Congress at the end of this term, and with him many of his current staff will depart.  That means there will be a new Chairman and new staff reflecting the Chairman’s views.  Who that will be is an open question – and that’s where my speculation begins. It is unclear to me whether Speaker Boehner will run for another term as Speaker or stand down.  I assume that he will run (and that the Republicans will hold the House) and that if he does Boehner will need to make some concessions to the libertarian/tea-party wing of his party to secure enough votes to win the Speakership.  If Boehner chooses not to run, Majority Leader Cantor will, assuredly, attempt to step up in his place – and he, too, will want to mollify the libertarian/tea-party wing.  For either man, the HPSCI Chairmanship is an easy chit to spend.  The “costs” fall on someone else (the Intelligence Community, subject to increased oversight) and the symbolism of the appointment to the libertarian/tea-party wing of the party (who are, in general, far more energized by anger at the NSA than the NSA’s defenders are energized by approval of it) would be quite high.  Going out on a limb, I would bet that the next HPSCI chair will be someone acceptable to that libertarian/tea-party wing of the Republican party.  And, looking at the current membership of HPSCI, that leads me to put my money on Congressman Lynn Westmorland from Georgia.  To be sure, he is a bit down the list in terms of seniority (so it's a bit of a stretch to get to him) and he’ll be in a contest for the job with Pete King of New York (a more traditional pro-national security conservative) but I am guessing that King will lose out because of these extraneous political factors. Now turn to the other side of the aisle.  Congressman Dutch Ruppersberger has been a moderate voice on the Committee.  His district, after all, includes the NSA headquarters at Ft. Meade.  But, as the Baltimore Sun reported last year, “Ruppersberger is the ranking Democratic member of the House Select Committee on Intelligence, a great assignment but one that has a term limit and ends when the current Congress does, in two years.”  Inside the Beltway rumors are that Minority Leader Pelosi is under strong pressure from her caucus to appoint a chair who is more skeptical of the intelligence community.  Early money is on Congresswoman Jan Schakowsky.   She’s number two in the pecking order – but much closer to Pelosi than is the other candidate, Mike Thompson. More to the point, whoever the new Ranking Minority member is, the change will almost certainly bring a complete change-over in HPSCI minority staff – likely bringing in a number of new faces with a much greater interest in confrontation with the Republicans and the IC, than in compromise. And there you have it – from Rogers/Ruppersberger, a moderate bi-partisan, pro-IC team, we can guess that the next HPSCI will transition to Westmoreland/Schakowsky – with a great deal more aggressive approach to the IC. Remember though – this speculation is worth exactly what you have paid for it.