Lawfare Daily: A Conversation with an Exiled Venezuelan Opposition Leader

[Introduction]

Leopoldo López: There's been more than 3,000 arrests. There's been dozens of people killed, most of them young people. And there's been even a higher level of blocking Signal, WhatsApp, X. So Maduro's closing the few spaces that were left. And that's where we are now.

Anastasiia Lapatina: It's the Lawfare Podcast. I'm Anastassia Lapatina, a Ukraine Fellow at Lawfare, with Leopoldo López, a Venezuelan opposition leader living in exile in Madrid.

Leopoldo López: And when you are under autocratic regimes, freedom is not theoretical, freedom is real. Freedom is tangible. Freedom is day to day. Freedom is the things that you are allowed to do and the things you're not allowed to do. Freedom is about feeling comfortable, feeling fearful.

Anastasiia Lapatina: Today we're talking about Venezuela's rigged presidential election and how the country's autocrat Nicolas Maduro is clinging to power with the help of other autocracies like Russia and China.

[Main Podcast]

So, on July 28th Venezuela held its highly anticipated presidential election that everyone has been talking about since it happened. Can you just walk us through why it's, it was so important and why it was so anticipated and what were the results of it?

Leopoldo López: Well, I mean, I can, I can go, you know, back this a long time. So we've been fighting against the autocratic regime for two decades now, and it's evolved into a full autocracy. In the year 2014 we, we called for protest, Maria Corina Machado, myself, and a couple of other leaders. That took me to prison, where I spent seven years between one thing and the other. In the year 2015, we won the National Assembly. We won two thirds of the National Assembly. But Maduro dismantled the National Assembly after we won. Then, in 2017, we had massive protests, like the protests that took place in Ukraine in 2014. Then in the year 2019, we pushed with the interim government, which was a constitutional response of the fraud of Maduro of 2018. And then came COVID and it was, you know, cause like three years of a very difficult time.

At the end of ‘23, we did a primary in order to consolidate the unity of the democratic sectors. And Maria Corina Machado won that primary. But she was then disqualified to run. So we were able to register Edmundo González, who is a Venezuelan diplomat, 74 years old. He was the only person that could be registered. And in a matter of months, he became known by every Venezuelan, everybody rallying around him. And going towards the election, it was very clear that there was going to be a landslide. Every, every opinion poll was showing that it was going to be 70-30. The streets were talking as well. You know, there were massive rallies in support of Edmundo González with Maria Corina Machado and the leadership. The election came with no surprise in terms of the results, but with uncertainty on the way Maduro was going to react. So the result of the election was what it was. It was 70-30. Edmundo González won every single state, every single municipality. He even won in the places where the military bases are located in Venezuela. So it was a landslide. The election was not free nor fair. Millions of Venezuelans, including those of us who are outside Venezuela, were forbidden to vote. So we're talking more than six million people were forbidden to vote. There, there was closing of media, radio station, blocking of websites. There were more than 100 arrests before the election. So we went with that condition and there was a landslide.

So with really no surprise, because it was expected, Maduro called a fraud. And people reacted, there was a massive reaction the days after the election. The, the things that happen when dictatorships are falling, the statues of Chavez were being torn down all over the country. People were protesting all over. And Maduro reacted the way he actually threatened before the election, with a bloodbath. He said it many times before the election. And, and that's what he did. And there's been more than 3,000 arrests. There's been dozens of people killed, most of them young people. And there's been even a higher level of blocking Signal, WhatsApp, X. So Maduro's closing the few spaces that were left. And that's where we are now. That's where we are. It's been three weeks since the election. And there is still the will to fight. The Venezuelan people inside Venezuela and outside Venezuela came out last Saturday, massive rallies all over Venezuela, all over the world. And now we also need the support, the decisive support, I must say, of the democratic countries in the world. Not just to question the results, many of them are already questioning the results, but to side with the people and recognize that Edmundo González was actually elected as president of Venezuela.

Anastasiia Lapatina: I know that something remarkable was happening with the Venezuelan opposition because for many months, thousands, if not millions of Venezuelans were rallying around Maria Corina, but then she wasn't allowed to actually run. They didn't register her. So then the opposition had to figure out what to do with that. And they chose to be represented by Edmundo González and people rallied behind him. And, you know, there weren't internal divisions and it still worked out. Could you just talk a bit about that political process? I know it's pretty significant.

Leopoldo López: Well, you know, the, the, the Venezuelan opposition, I think when, when we, when we see what we have done over this, this past two decades, there's been ups and downs, but for the most part we've been able to unite in critical moments. We did in 2012 with the primary process. We did, so in 2015 when we were able to consolidate a unified platform of more than 20 political parties with a single list, and we won two thirds. That's why we won. In 2017, 2014, we went to streets together. In 2019, we all supported the interim government. And then we went back to the people to consolidate the legitimacy of the leadership through a primary. And that's what took place in 2023, that elected Maria Corina. And everybody was committed to rallying behind her.

For this election, we had the intention and the push of the regime to create its own opposition. So the regime financed, supported, gave platform to political puppets, to puppet candidates. And to tell the truth, I knew some of them, some of them were actually part of our movement in the past. But these, these are broken people, broken leaders, scared and, and people who fear the regime and get the carrots of the regime. But the people didn't go for that. People went for the true leadership that was very clear about transitioning to democracy. And that's the main, the main offer to the people. Of course, there is a view, there is a plan, there is a promised land. But the main support comes from the will of the people to take out the dictatorship, to take out Maduro. Maduro is not, he doesn't have bad numbers, like, democratic presidents. You know, more than 85 percent of the people, if we take into consideration those that were not able to vote, want Maduro out. I mean, there is rage from the people. There is this sentiment, this, this conviction that the entire situation of the Venezuelan people are because of Maduro.

And, and let me tell you a bit about this. The, Venezuela used to be the, one of the most prosperous countries in Latin America. Now for different reasons, one of them being the fact that Venezuela has been very rich in natural resources. And over the past 20 years, but especially over the past decade, Venezuela collapsed. The GDP of Venezuela collapsed by 80%. This is a consequence of having destroyed the democracy, expropriations, price controls, state controlled enterprises, more than 6,000 state controlled enterprises. And that led to a massive, complex humanitarian tragedy that in itself led to the largest migration crisis in the world, larger than Ukraine, larger than Syria. We don't have a war. We're talking that three out of ten Venezuelans have left our country in the last ten years. So this is massive. And all of that is because of Maduro. And people understand very clearly. And when you are under autocratic regimes, freedom is not theoretical. Freedom is real. Freedom is tangible. Freedom is day to day. Freedom is the things that you are allowed to do and the things you're not allowed to do. Freedom is about feeling comfortable or feeling fearful. So every Venezuelan has that, a vital, a personal story about what it means to be free. So people, you know, are when they, when we chant freedom, when we say we want freedom, when we, when we mobilize for freedom, when we are willing to take risks for freedom, we know what that is. It's not theoretical.

Anastasiia Lapatina: I remember when I interviewed you last year in Kyiv, you said that Venezuelans feel about Maduro the way Ukrainians feel about Putin.

Leopoldo López: Oh, yeah.

Anastassia Lapatina: It was very striking to me.

Leopoldo López: Yes, yes. I mean, I, I visited Ukraine last year and I hope to visit Ukraine again. And, you know, I learned many things, many things. I learned about just the, the, the way people are reacting to the war, especially in the cities. Living or trying to live a normal life, as a way of reaffirming that these are the things that the people at the front lines are fighting for. The resilience of the Ukrainian people. And also the clear understanding of the threat, understanding that the threat is real, and, and the threat is, it's, it's led by a human being. In your case, it's Putin. In our case, it's Maduro. And let me tell you something, Maduro and Putin are friends. Putin was the first regime to recognize the fraud of Maduro. Ten days after the election, Putin sent a warship to the ports of Venezuela. The Wagner Group has presence in Venezuela. So, these are not isolated issues from one from another. Putin loves Maduro. Maduro loves Putin. They love to be thieves. They love their kleptocratic relations. They are both corrupt. They hate human rights. They don't want free and fair elections. They don't have and don't want to have the rule of law. They don't respect the freedoms of individuals of anyone but want to control and to have the population as subjects of their will.

Anastasiia Lapatina: Maduro and his top lieutenants are facing criminal charges in the U.S. for narcoterrorism, corruption, drug trafficking, and a bunch of other related crimes. American prosecutors say that Maduro was the leader of a violent drug cartel that flooded the U.S. with cocaine. But recently there's been some reporting from the Wall Street Journal suggesting that the U.S. is actually trying to pressure Maduro to give up power by offering him and his allies full amnesty. What do you think about this plan?

Leopoldo López: Yeah, that article came out, and even the White House came out saying that that was not accurate. But anyhow, I mean, conversations between the U S. and the dictatorship have been going on since 2022, and I, of course, understand that this is part of what might be the discussions. And the priority of the Venezuelan people and the leadership of this movement, the wide leadership, there's consensus around this, is that the priority is to transition to democracy. The priorities to Maduro to leave, the priority is to build a transition, the priority is to have functioning state democracy, to have dignity for the people, to have hope, to have future.

And of course one of the big challenges going forward will be, you know, how to deal with justice, how to deal with all of the human rights violations. Venezuela now, and Maduro, not Venezuela, Maduro, is being investigated by the International Criminal Court. And we are asking, actively the ICC to issue the warrants of arrest to those responsible for committing, you know, crimes against humanity, the same way the prosecutor issued the warrants of arrest against Putin for the invasion to Ukraine or to Hamas, or even the, to Netanyahu. In Venezuela what's happened, it's very clear, it's documented, it's been going on for more than 10 years under the ICC investigations, so we believe that of course justice has to come. And we understand and the leadership, Maria Corina Machado and Edmundo González have said this, everybody understands that there will need to be conversations about how to build the transition and it will need to take these issues into consideration for sure.

Anastasiia Lapatina: Let's talk about your personal story a little bit. You already mentioned that you were arrested in Venezuela in 2014, which was right around Maduro's ascent to power. And the regime sentenced you to more than 13 years in prison for, among other things, public incitement of violence. So, what actually led to these charges and how, also, how did you manage to escape?

Leopoldo López: Well, in, in January of 2014, we called for a protest. We did it, Maria Corina Machado, Juan Guaidó, myself. We were part of a movement within the opposition called ‘The Way Out of the Dictatorship.’ And we were the first to call Maduro what he really was. We called Maduro a dictator. We called him for the repression. We called him for the links to the narcos from Colombia and Mexico. We called him for destroying democracy and the economy, and we called the people to take the streets. And people took the streets, tens of thousands of people took the streets. And January the 12th of 2014 there was a massive rally and the detail of the Minister of Interior killed a young man called Bassil Da Costa, who was a 21 year old carpenter, and he was shot in the back of his head. And then they killed Robert Redman, and then they killed Juancho Montoya.

There was a warrant for my arrest. I went into hiding and I took the decision to turn myself in because at the time it was not clear that we were facing a dictatorship. And I was very conscious that one of the contributions that we needed to make was to show the Venezuelan people in the world that we were actually facing a dictatorship. So I went to prison. I was sent to solitary confinement. I was sentenced, as you said, to almost 14 years in prison. The crimes against me were precisely calling Maduro a dictator, calling him a narc, calling him responsible for committing crimes against humanity. So at the end of 2017, I was sent to house arrest. There were protests taking place at the time. And I called for protests again from house arrest, and they sent me back to military prison. Then back to house arrest, from where I was able to escape with the collaboration of the military and the police on April 2019. And I, after that day, I had to seek refuge at the Spanish Embassy, where I stayed for a year and a half. And then at the end of 2020, with the collaboration of some friends, I was able to escape. I was almost caught. We were actually caught, but they never knew who I was because it was COVID. So I had a COVID mask and I was playing very sick and we were able to talk our way and walk our way out. And I crossed to Colombia. From Colombia, I went to the United States, and then to Spain, where my family have been in exile for seven years.

Anastasiia Lapatina: So we've already mentioned the relationship that Venezuela has with Russia. And it's really important because autocrats don't stay in power by ruling in isolation. They cling to other autocratic regimes and work together, which is why these governments are so hard to break down. And Maduro is no exception. So can you just tell us how his friendship with dictators like Putin and Xi Jinping helped him stay in power all these years?

Leopoldo López: Well, in many different ways, I believe that there is a network of autocrats that works very, very closely. And there are different ways in which Maduro has received support. And I actually believe that one of the main reasons Maduro is still in power is because he has the support of the autocratic countries. Let me give you just a very graphic, recent example. After the election, more than 50 countries have recognized Maduro. But guess what? All of those countries are autocratic. These, starting by Russia, China, Iran North Korea, Belarus, Cuba, Nicaragua, Zimbabwe, Uganda, et cetera, these are the countries that are supporting Maduro, all of them are autocratic regimes. So, the first layer, evident layer of the support is diplomatic.

But then you have the financial layer. China has been instrumental in giving funding to Maduro. Russia has been instrumental in giving military support. Since 2007, Russia has been taking more up to the point that it has the monopoly of the arms supply to Venezuela. Venezuela bought over 18 billion dollars of arms supply, including air defense over the past 15 years. And of course, that creates a dependency for the maintenance, the training of all of the arms relation. And then Iran has been instrumental in giving Maduro support for the ways of evading sanctions, for laundering money. Hezbollah has a presence in Venezuela, that has been widely documented. Venezuela is used as a laundering for the money of these regimes. And I can go on. Belarus has factories in Venezuela that are just part of the kleptocratic network. Cuba has been feeding on Venezuela for years, so that's another layer of each one of the countries.

Then you have, you know, non state armed groups, like, the FARC, the ELN, the Hezbollah, the Cartel de Sinaloa, the Cartel de la Droga de Mexi-, de Colombia. All of them have presence in Venezuela. So, all of this is, it's a, it's a network that is very evident the way they work. Unfortunately, I, I think the, the view from the, from the democratic world is, is usually very naive. And he talks about the international community as if it was one homogeneous international community. There are even those that divide the world between left and right governments and regimes. So, you know, good autocrats from the left are your allies, or good autocrats from the right could be your allies, even in democratic countries, which is absurd, but that is happening. And I believe that there is a real difference when you don't look at the world in terms of left or right but in terms of democracy, autocracy. You see clearly that there are, you know, these alliances that bring together the Communist Party of China with the nationalists of Russia, with the theocrats of Iran, with the kleptocrats of Venezuela. So, there's no ideology, it's only autocracy and it's only a common enemy, democracy. So that's what binds these groups together.

Anastasiia Lapatina: Venezuela is now in a peculiar situation because there hasn't yet been a presidential inauguration. Everyone knows the election was rigged, and even some of Venezuela's allies like Brazil and Colombia are skeptical of the election and actually have called to run new elections. And President Biden recently told reporters that he actually supports this idea. But the Venezuelan opposition is completely against it and says that, you know, the will of the people must be respected and that, you know, running new elections is absurd. What do you think about some of these possible scenarios going forward? What, what should we look out for?

Leopoldo López: Well, we should, we should look for the recognition of the people of Venezuela, for the will of the Venezuelan people. It's very simple. I mean, if you're a democrat, you believe in the people. People spoke through the vote against all odds, with many obstacles fearing even detention, persecution, and they did. There's no reason why to call for a new election. What we hope is a rapid recognition of countries that Edmundo González is the president elect. That's what we expect. And if you see autocrats, I mean, they don't, they don't look at, you know, the, the, the wrinkle in the face to see if they recognize or not Maduro. Within 48 hours, you know, all autocracies were supporting Maduro. No questions asked. And then on the democratic side, what do we have? Well, we have countries that are, you know, questioning the results, calling for new elections, calling for a coalition government. What are you talking about? The Constitution is clear. The rules of democracy are clear.

Anastasiia Lapatina: Saying that they're very concerned.

Leopoldo López: Yeah, well, you know, we get a lot of that. We get a lot of, you know, we are deeply concerned type of statements.

Anastasiia Lapatina: Just like Ukraine.

Leopoldo López: That doesn't do anything. That doesn't do anything. I mean, we need support. And the support starts with the recognition of the truth. And the truth is that the Venezuelan people spoke. And the truth is, if you're a democrat, you must support the most basic expression of democracy, which is the will of the people voting. That's what we expect. We don't expect less. You know, we don't, we don't need, you know, commitments to make the dictator comfortable. We want support. We want commitment to democracy from governments. We don't care and we expect that governments, you know, who are from the left or the right or the center, are democrats, are truly democrats to support the will of the Venezuelan people. That's what we expect.

Anastasiia Lapatina: Leopoldo, thank you. This was very interesting.

Leopoldo López: No, thank you. Thank you, Anastasia. I'm looking forward to seeing you soon in Ukraine and all of our support to Ukraine. And please let me know how we can do more, how we can support more. I think that the victory of Ukraine is the victory for Venezuela and the free world. I also believe that the victory of the Venezuelan people, it's also the victory of Ukraine and the victory of the free world. So we are in this together. So, thank you. Thank you very much.

Anastasiia Lapatina: The Lawfare Podcast is produced in cooperation with the Brookings institution. You can get an ad-free version of this and other Lawfare podcasts by becoming a Lawfare material supporter through our website, lawfaremedia.org/support. You'll also get access to special events and other content available only to our supporters. Please rate and review us wherever you get your podcasts. Look out for our other podcasts including Rational Security, Chatter, Allies, and the Aftermath, our latest Lawfare Presents podcast series on the government's response to January 6th. Check out our written work at lawfaremedia.org. The podcast is edited by Jen Patja and your audio engineer this episode was Cara Shillenn of Goat Rodeo. Our theme song is from Alibi Music. As always, thank you for listening.